Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rakuten and Yahoo Shopping continued to outperform the e-commerce sector overall in the past six months – Amazon data is due early next year – so market share is rising.</li>
<li>However, a good chunk of recent growth was thanks to a now banned points scheme for tax offsets which led to a surge in sales pre-ban.</li>
<li>This means revenues may now dip again without that incentive but the longer term outlook remains clear: the big malls continue to increase market share in Japanese e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


Rakuten and Yahoo Shopping continued to outperform the e-commerce sector overall in the past six months – Amazon data is due early next year – so market share is rising.
However, a good chunk of recent growth was thanks to a now banned points scheme for tax offsets which led to a surge in sales pre-ban.
This means revenues may now dip again without that incentive but the longer term outlook remains clear: the big malls continue to increase market share in Japanese e-commerce.


Rakuten and Yahoo (And Zozo) Take More Share in Japanese E-Commerce Market

<ul>
<li>Zozo’s purchase of UK mall Lyst will create significant synergies, allowing Zozo to build a strong base in Europe and the US.</li>
<li>The move will allow brands from Japan to sell overseas easily, while also potentially making it simple for European and US brands to sell into Japan.</li>
<li>The deal comes just in time given slowing e-commerce sales in Japan.</li>
</ul>


Zozo’s purchase of UK mall Lyst will create significant synergies, allowing Zozo to build a strong base in Europe and the US.
The move will allow brands from Japan to sell overseas easily, while also potentially making it simple for European and US brands to sell into Japan.
The deal comes just in time given slowing e-commerce sales in Japan.


<ul>
<li>Zozo continues to post solid gains in sales but a slight dip in new customers has led some to suggest that the online fashion mall is reaching its peak. </li>
<li>Meanwhile, The Japanese fashion retail sector has seen improved performance from retail stores at the expense of e-commerce, with stores actually outperforming online last year.</li>
<li>While further growth may be harder to achieve, Zozo has several strategies in place that should help it reach its target of ¥800 billion.</li>
</ul>


Zozo continues to post solid gains in sales but a slight dip in new customers has led some to suggest that the online fashion mall is reaching its peak. 
Meanwhile, The Japanese fashion retail sector has seen improved performance from retail stores at the expense of e-commerce, with stores actually outperforming online last year.
While further growth may be harder to achieve, Zozo has several strategies in place that should help it reach its target of ¥800 billion.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.</li>
<li>It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. </li>
<li>Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.</li>
</ul>



Fast Retailing (9983 JP) investors are in a conundrum. The stock is doing well. With one quarter to go, the company just raised its full-year EPS target by 8.3%.
It also raised its H2 dividend by 20+% so the full-year div will be more than 20% higher than previously forecast and up 35+% since last year. All good. 
Except for the selling. Potentially lots of selling. And more outperformance begets more selling. Then even more selling in 2024. And 2025? What about 2025? More outperformance begets more selling.


Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

<ul>
<li>Yutori is still a small business but is sometimes dubbed the Zozo of youth fashion, which is probably why Zozo bought a share in the online mall. </li>
<li>And it’s proving a good bet, with sales doubling last year and a lot more expansion to come.</li>
<li>Thanks in part to investment in retail stores but also its uncanny ability to spot youth trends.</li>
</ul>


Yutori is still a small business but is sometimes dubbed the Zozo of youth fashion, which is probably why Zozo bought a share in the online mall. 
And it’s proving a good bet, with sales doubling last year and a lot more expansion to come.
Thanks in part to investment in retail stores but also its uncanny ability to spot youth trends.


Japan

ZOZO Inc operates internet shopping sites for apparel.  The Company also provides communication services relating to apparel such as blogs by fashion moguls and internet chat room for users.

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ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)

Zozo Purchase of Lyst Is Timely

Zozo's acquisition of Lyst will open up new markets for Japanese and international brands, boosting e-commerce sales amid a slight slowdown in...

Michael Causton

Zozo Still Expecting New Highs

Zozo's sales are strong, but a drop in new customers has some concerned of a peak, particularly as retail stores outperformed e-commerce last...

Michael Causton

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Yutori Doubles Sales Again

Zozo's investment in Yutori, a small youth fashion business, is paying off as sales double and expansion plans are in the works due to their...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Rakuten and Yahoo (And Zozo) Take More Share in Japanese E-Commerce Market

​Rakuten and Yahoo Shopping lead in growth, but recent surge in sales was partly due to now banned points scheme. Revenues may dip but big malls...

Michael Causton

Zozo Purchase of Lyst Is Timely

​Zozo's acquisition of Lyst will open up new markets for Japanese and international brands, boosting e-commerce sales amid a slight slowdown in...

Michael Causton

Zozo Still Expecting New Highs

​Zozo's sales are strong, but a drop in new customers has some concerned of a peak, particularly as retail stores outperformed e-commerce last...

Michael Causton

Fast Retailing UPs Forecasts, Which Creates A Sell/Short Opportunity

Fast Retailing announced decent earnings for Q3 and upgraded forecasts for August 2023. It also raised its full-year dividend vs previous guidance....

Travis Lundy

Yutori Doubles Sales Again

​Zozo's investment in Yutori, a small youth fashion business, is paying off as sales double and expansion plans are in the works due to their...

Michael Causton

Rakuten and Yahoo Shopping lead in growth, but recent surge in sales was partly due to now banned points scheme. Revenues may dip but big malls...

Zozo's acquisition of Lyst will open up new markets for Japanese and international brands, boosting e-commerce sales amid a slight slowdown in...

Zozo's sales are strong, but a drop in new customers has some concerned of a peak, particularly as retail stores outperformed e-commerce last...

Zozo's investment in Yutori, a small youth fashion business, is paying off as sales double and expansion plans are in the works due to their...