Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Japanese E-Commerce Review 2020: Softbank/Z, Rakuten and Amazon to Dominate Further

Japan Mobile: What We Expect when Rakuten Unveils Pricing Next Week

Zozo Spreads Its Wings at Home and Overseas

Zozo Base Support Press - Short a Recovery

Zozo – Reward Point-Juiced Growth Still Disappoints

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We have been harping on the likelihood of growth turning negative in 2H for some time, pointing out that the sell side’s assumptions regarding average shipment values are too optimistic. There was already some evidence of this in the previous quarter but 3Q results should clear any remaining doubts. Revenue came in at ¥34.6bn (-3.8% YoY vs. consensus expecting +3.8%), while OP plunged 42.0% to ¥6.1bn (consensus expected -15.1% YoY). We believe this is the start of several quarters of near zero or negative growth.</p>

We have been harping on the likelihood of growth turning negative in 2H for some time, pointing out that the sell side’s assumptions regarding average shipment values are too optimistic. There was already some evidence of this in the previous quarter but 3Q results should clear any remaining doubts. Revenue came in at ¥34.6bn (-3.8% YoY vs. consensus expecting +3.8%), while OP plunged 42.0% to ¥6.1bn (consensus expected -15.1% YoY). We believe this is the start of several quarters of near zero or negative growth.

Zozo – Growth Cancellation Follows Dear Moon Cancellation

ZOZO Inc

Zozo – Growth Cancellation Follows Dear Moon Cancellation