Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Disinflation During Lockdown Disaster

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>The upside news from October’s inflation release more than unwound in Nov-20 as the CPI and RPI rates undershot forecasts by 0.3pp at 0.3% and 0.9% respectively. Garment prices stripped back much more than I had already dovishly assumed.</em></li>
<li><em>Payback in garment prices is negligible during Decembers. Shocks in insurance premiums also rarely unwind rapidly, so most of the downside news persists in my forecast. Base effects in the Spring should still kick inflation back up, with it exceeding 2% in Dec-21.</em></li>
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The upside news from October’s inflation release more than unwound in Nov-20 as the CPI and RPI rates undershot forecasts by 0.3pp at 0.3% and 0.9% respectively. Garment prices stripped back much more than I had already dovishly assumed.
Payback in garment prices is negligible during Decembers. Shocks in insurance premiums also rarely unwind rapidly, so most of the downside news persists in my forecast. Base effects in the Spring should still kick inflation back up, with it exceeding 2% in Dec-21.


UK: Inflation Stripped in Nov-20