Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Subdued Reflation Pressures in Mar-21

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>UK inflation disappointed in Feb-21 as it slowed to 0.4% y-o-y on the CPI and held at 1.4% on the RPI. Garment prices were the weakest on record for a February CPI. Games also weighed on the CPI, with some payback likely, while the RPI was more hit by insurance.</em></li>
<li><em>Locked down clothing shops have struggled to shift stock, smothering a strange surge from 2020 at the start of 2021. Our forecasts are lowered by the news, especially on the RPI. Hawkish labour market news should at least offsets this for the BoE, in our view.</em></li>
</ul>


UK inflation disappointed in Feb-21 as it slowed to 0.4% y-o-y on the CPI and held at 1.4% on the RPI. Garment prices were the weakest on record for a February CPI. Games also weighed on the CPI, with some payback likely, while the RPI was more hit by insurance.
Locked down clothing shops have struggled to shift stock, smothering a strange surge from 2020 at the start of 2021. Our forecasts are lowered by the news, especially on the RPI. Hawkish labour market news should at least offsets this for the BoE, in our view.


UK: Disinflation During Lockdown Disaster