Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Disinflation During Lockdown Disaster

UK: Subdued Reflation Pressures in Mar-21

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK unemployment rate declined to 5% in Jan-21, contrary to expectations for an increase. It was, at face value, caused by a drop in participation but is likely to reflect a repeat of the response-bias that unwound after the first lockdown.</li>
<li>Vacancies recovering pre-covid norms won’t prevent a belated rise in the UR. Kickstart listings have arrived, raising these vacancies beyond the pool of eligible candidates.</li>
<li>Furlough and grants for the self-employed continue to freeze the labour market in a tight setting, contributing to the strength in wages. Disappointment to the consensus in Jan-21 matched the signal driving our forecast, which has since rebounded.</li>
</ul>


The UK unemployment rate declined to 5% in Jan-21, contrary to expectations for an increase. It was, at face value, caused by a drop in participation but is likely to reflect a repeat of the response-bias that unwound after the first lockdown.
Vacancies recovering pre-covid norms won’t prevent a belated rise in the UR. Kickstart listings have arrived, raising these vacancies beyond the pool of eligible candidates.
Furlough and grants for the self-employed continue to freeze the labour market in a tight setting, contributing to the strength in wages. Disappointment to the consensus in Jan-21 matched the signal driving our forecast, which has since rebounded.


UK: Labour Market Locked Down Tight