Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Reflationary Respite for BoE in Jul-21

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>UK inflation increased again in May-21 to 3.3% on the RPI and 2.1% on the CPI. An unsustainably narrow prevalence of clothing discounts supported the rise. Ongoing imputation binds the RPI against capturing potential surge pricing as lockdown eases.</em></li>
<li><em>Our June RPI forecast is currently 0.4pp below the market fixing, which would require an extraordinary surge beyond historical precedents. Hard methodological constraints mean we see RPI market pricing as extremely vulnerable over the next few months.</em></li>
</ul>


UK inflation increased again in May-21 to 3.3% on the RPI and 2.1% on the CPI. An unsustainably narrow prevalence of clothing discounts supported the rise. Ongoing imputation binds the RPI against capturing potential surge pricing as lockdown eases.
Our June RPI forecast is currently 0.4pp below the market fixing, which would require an extraordinary surge beyond historical precedents. Hard methodological constraints mean we see RPI market pricing as extremely vulnerable over the next few months.


UK: RPI Poised to Disappoint the Market