Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Reflationary Respite for BoE in Jul-21

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK inflation surged again in Jun-21 to 3.9% on the RPI and 2.5% on the CPI. The outcome was far above economist expectations but closer to the market fixing. Although imputation bound as we expected, upside risks broadly crystalised, joined by new ones.</li>
<li>Car prices are belatedly tracking alternative indicators, which we now incorporate into our baseline. UK clothing prices appear to have temporarily stepped away from Europe.</li>
<li>Rising underlying inflation pressures reduce stimulus’s dovish cover but probably won’t bring a premature end. We expect the CPI and RPI to slow in July to 1.9% and 3.5%.</li>
</ul>


UK inflation surged again in Jun-21 to 3.9% on the RPI and 2.5% on the CPI. The outcome was far above economist expectations but closer to the market fixing. Although imputation bound as we expected, upside risks broadly crystalised, joined by new ones.
Car prices are belatedly tracking alternative indicators, which we now incorporate into our baseline. UK clothing prices appear to have temporarily stepped away from Europe.
Rising underlying inflation pressures reduce stimulus’s dovish cover but probably won’t bring a premature end. We expect the CPI and RPI to slow in July to 1.9% and 3.5%.


UK: Inflation Jumps with Underlying Lift