Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Athaporn served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 22 years, of which 19 were in research and 9 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006.

Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also performs financial advisory services for TKC Services and provides 11 other on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely:

1) Snippets (news-driven);
2) Sathorn Series (financial services);
3) Silicon Stories (technology); 
4) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin series);
5) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative);
6) Thai Media Spotlight;
7) Political Pit Stop; 
8) Telecom Review; 
9) Thai Macro Watch (read-through from foreign events);  
10) Small Cap Diary; and
11) Property Grid

There are also 3 limited-time series driven by specific events or locations, namely:
1) Thai Corona Crisis;
2) South Series; and
3) Mechanics and Details (deal forensics).

Thai Retail - Life After the Tesco Lotus Sale?

Snippets #38: AWC's New Sacred Bull, Buyback Bonanza

Mechanics and Details of the CP Group-Tesco Deal

Is CPALL's Win a Bigger Win for Berli Jucker?

Thai Retail - Who Will Bite the Tesco Lotus Bullet?

Snippets #34: Tesco in Play, CRC's Indicative IPO Pricing

Tesco Sells Thailand to CP All: Will Anti-Trust Approve?

Why Tesco Should Not Sell Its Thai Business

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Event-Driven

CP Group defeated rivals TCC Group and Central Retail in an epic war to buy Tesco's assets in Thailand and Malaysia for US$10.6bn, one of the biggest deals in Thailand.<ul>
<li>The listed entity CP All is taking a 40% stake in this asset, which gives it control of the largest hypermarket in Thailand. With this higher than expected price tag, we estimate that Bt10.9bn or Bt2.2/sh of value was destroyed, but CP All's share price dropped Bt5.5/sh on the day the deal was announced, suggesting a market over-reaction in our view.</li>
<li>While the results are unfavorable, our original analysis shows that things could have been worse if smaller companies, BJC or CRC, that had smaller levels or synergy had won this bid. It appears that all three parties were willing to overpay relative to what made sense for them.</li>
<li>Mergers between retailers typically create synergies via reduction of overlaps and increases in bargaining power in purchasing. Hypermarkets can also expect to benefit from shoppers hoarding necessities in Thailand during the coronavirus crisis.</li>
<li>
Winner's curse. Ironically, because of the overpayment impact, the real 'winners' are BJC, which controls rival Big C, and Central Retail.</li>
</ul>

CP Group defeated rivals TCC Group and Central Retail in an epic war to buy Tesco's assets in Thailand and Malaysia for US$10.6bn, one of the biggest deals in Thailand.
The listed entity CP All is taking a 40% stake in this asset, which gives it control of the largest hypermarket in Thailand. With this higher than expected price tag, we estimate that Bt10.9bn or Bt2.2/sh of value was destroyed, but CP All's share price dropped Bt5.5/sh on the day the deal was announced, suggesting a market over-reaction in our view.
While the results are unfavorable, our original analysis shows that things could have been worse if smaller companies, BJC or CRC, that had smaller levels or synergy had won this bid. It appears that all three parties were willing to overpay relative to what made sense for them.
Mergers between retailers typically create synergies via reduction of overlaps and increases in bargaining power in purchasing. Hypermarkets can also expect to benefit from shoppers hoarding necessities in Thailand during the coronavirus crisis.

Winner's curse. Ironically, because of the overpayment impact, the real 'winners' are BJC, which controls rival Big C, and Central Retail.


Reality Check 2020: Did CP All Really 'Win' the Tesco Deal?

CP ALL PCL

Reality Check 2020: Did CP All Really 'Win' the Tesco Deal?