Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The convenience store (CVS) business in 1Q25E is expected to post strong SSSG and a healthy GPM.</li><li>This is combined with CPAXT’s retail and wholesale segment, which should see the GPM increase YoY but decrease QoQ.</li><li>As a result, CPALL's core profit is expected to rise 11% YoY but decline 4% QoQ.</li></ul>

The convenience store (CVS) business in 1Q25E is expected to post strong SSSG and a healthy GPM.This is combined with CPAXT’s retail and wholesale segment, which should see the GPM increase YoY but decrease QoQ.As a result, CPALL's core profit is expected to rise 11% YoY but decline 4% QoQ.

CP All - Expect 1Q25E Core Profit Growth at 11% YoY and 4% QoQ

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>A meeting with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> management revealed some interesting new initiatives to drive growth as the company remains upbeat about its store expansion for 2025. </li>
<li>The company is moving towards opening larger-sized stores, with more RTE and RTD offerings and some parking and food vendors outside, which will help diversify merchandise offerings..  </li>
<li>It is unclear what direction Seven &amp; I's restructuring will take, but looking through that, the company is trading on historically attractive valuations.</li>
</ul>


A meeting with CP ALL (CPALL TB) management revealed some interesting new initiatives to drive growth as the company remains upbeat about its store expansion for 2025. 
The company is moving towards opening larger-sized stores, with more RTE and RTD offerings and some parking and food vendors outside, which will help diversify merchandise offerings..  
It is unclear what direction Seven &amp; I's restructuring will take, but looking through that, the company is trading on historically attractive valuations.


CP ALL (CPALL TB) - Increasing Size and Diversity

Event-Driven

<ul><li>The news regarding the search by a Japanese retail company, Seven &amp; I, for a joint venture partner indicates that the terms and partner selection have not yet been finalized. This uncertainty may continue to pressure CPALL until further clarity emerges.</li><li><div>We conducted a preliminary study on CPALL’s potential to secure additional funding if it participates in a management buyout (MBO) of Seven &amp; i. Assuming a 20% investment stake, CPALL would recognize shared profit from the associate (Seven &amp; I) to offset the increased interest expenses.</div></li><li><div>However, on an accounting basis, this would pose downside risk to the earnings estimates by approximately 6% in 2025E and 2% in 2026E. Conversely, when factoring in dividend income from Seven &amp; i, there would be upside risk to net cash flow, contributing approximately +8% in 2025E and +12% in 2026E.</div></li></ul>

The news regarding the search by a Japanese retail company, Seven &amp; I, for a joint venture partner indicates that the terms and partner selection have not yet been finalized. This uncertainty may continue to pressure CPALL until further clarity emerges.We conducted a preliminary study on CPALL’s potential to secure additional funding if it participates in a management buyout (MBO) of Seven &amp; i. Assuming a 20% investment stake, CPALL would recognize shared profit from the associate (Seven &amp; I) to offset the increased interest expenses.However, on an accounting basis, this would pose downside risk to the earnings estimates by approximately 6% in 2025E and 2% in 2026E. Conversely, when factoring in dividend income from Seven &amp; i, there would be upside risk to net cash flow, contributing approximately +8% in 2025E and +12% in 2026E.

CPALL: Japanese Retail Firm Seeking a Partner, But Not Yet Finalized

<ul><li>4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 24% and 39% YoY, respectively, beating expectations by 9% and 2% due to stronger- than-expected sales and other income, while the GPM remained healthy.</li><li>The valuation metrics continue to support a positive view on the current fundamentals, with the stock price implying 36% upside.</li><li>The tactical outlook has been upgraded to very limited downside risk (previously neutral), and the long-term growth outlook has been revised to strong (previously neutral), supported by a projected 14% CAGR for earnings growth over the next two years.</li></ul>

4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 24% and 39% YoY, respectively, beating expectations by 9% and 2% due to stronger- than-expected sales and other income, while the GPM remained healthy.The valuation metrics continue to support a positive view on the current fundamentals, with the stock price implying 36% upside.The tactical outlook has been upgraded to very limited downside risk (previously neutral), and the long-term growth outlook has been revised to strong (previously neutral), supported by a projected 14% CAGR for earnings growth over the next two years.

CP All - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Earnings; 2Y Growth Projected at a 14% CAGR

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> has seen a rout in its share price as investors worry that it may be drawn into investing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings</a>.</li>
<li>Indications suggest that if it was to invest, the stake would be much smaller than previously reported and it would likely come with some beneficial concessions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL (CPALL TB)</a> continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have been compressed to attractive levels.</li>
</ul>



CP ALL (CPALL TB) has seen a rout in its share price as investors worry that it may be drawn into investing in Seven &amp; I Holdings.
Indications suggest that if it was to invest, the stake would be much smaller than previously reported and it would likely come with some beneficial concessions.

CP ALL (CPALL TB) continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have been compressed to attractive levels.


CP ALL (CPALL TB) - Caught in a Force Seven Gale

Thailand

CP ALL PCL operates convenience store chains in Thailand and China.  The Company also owns and operates the a department store chain located primarily in Shanghai city and Chonqing city of China.

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CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)

CP All - Expect 1Q25E Core Profit Growth at 11% YoY and 4% QoQ

The convenience store (CVS) business in 1Q25E is expected to post strong SSSG and a healthy GPM. This is combined with CPAXT’s retail and wholesale...

Krungthai XSpring

CP ALL (CPALL TB) - Increasing Size and Diversity

A meeting with CP ALL (CPALL TB) management revealed some interesting new initiatives to drive growth as the company remains upbeat about its store...

Angus Mackintosh

CPALL: Japanese Retail Firm Seeking a Partner, But Not Yet Finalized

The news regarding the search by a Japanese retail company, Seven & I, for a joint venture partner indicates that the terms and partner selection...

Krungthai XSpring

CP All - Upbeat 4Q24 and 2024 Earnings; 2Y Growth Projected at a 14% CAGR

4Q24 and 2024 core profit grew by 24% and 39% YoY, respectively, beating expectations by 9% and 2% due to stronger- than-expected sales and other...

Krungthai XSpring

CP ALL (CPALL TB) - Caught in a Force Seven Gale

CP ALL (CPALL TB) continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have...

Angus Mackintosh

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