Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

India: Easing Inflation Will Oblige RBI to Cut Policy Rates in the Next Half Year

India Nifty Buy Support Within Maturing Rising Wedge

India: 2nd Covid Wave Will Delay (Not Halt) The Strength of the Economic Rebound

India's 2020 Reforms Will Usher in a Decade of Spectacular Growth from 2021 On

India: Incredible Fiscal Responsibility Amid the Economic Devastation of Covid

Economic Recovery Is Gaining Momentum, but Monetary Stimulus Would Help

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

Turbo-charged by a 34% surge in public investment, a widening privatization and asset monetization program, and a credible mechanism for cleaning up banks' bad assets, India's real GDP is likely to grow 13.5% in FY2021/22. With a labour market as flexible as any in Asia, corporate taxes as low as Singapore for new manufacturers, production-linked incentives, efficiency gains from privatization, and steadily-greater lending by cleaned-up banks, real GDP will grow 10% annually over the decade ahead. Stay Overweight India. 
India's economy received a fillip from the Budget for FY2021/22, which contained a 34.5% YoY increase in public investment (particularly infrastructure), a wider focus on privatization of government-owned companies (including 3 banks and an insurer) as part of a radical agenda that includes monetization of the government's other assets and land (via the the creation of Infrastructure Investment Trusts), and steps to work out banks' bad loan problems via an asset reconstruction company (for government-owned banks) that would take over, manage and then sell the bad loans on the market.  
This fiscal year's deficit is projected to be 9.5% of GDP, although this number includes more transparent accounting, particularly by bringing food subsidies back onto the government's books (rather than onto those of the Food Corporation of India). Even with that transparency, though, the actual deficit is unlikely to be larger than 8% of GDP -- and GDP likely to be higher than the government has forecast. With the big boost to public investment, the successful vaccine rollout, labour-market reforms, production-linked incentives, broad-based and widening privatization program, and mechanisms to unclog bank lending, we expect real GDP to grow 13.5% in FY2021/22, with CPI inflation averaging 4% YoY, which will allow policy rates to decline. Given the buoyancy in tax revenues, we expect the fiscal deficit to moderate to 4.5% of GDP next fiscal year, and a virtuous circle of lower interest rates and more crowding in of private investment. 
While FY2021/22 will see the completion of eight big-ticket strategic sales of public enterprises (SCI, BPCL, ConCor, Air India, IDBI, two banks and an insurer) and one large IPO (of LIC), privatizations and asset monetization will mark the medium-term roll-out of "minimum government, maximum governance", as the government steadily withdraws from running businesses, turning them over instead to the dynamism of entrepreneurial India and FDI. A rationally cleaned-up banking system will be positioned also to fund new lending, while FDI and domestic investment help the reformed Indian economy capture an increasing share of global value chains (GVCs) fleeing China for safer shores. We expect real GDP growth of 10% annually over the 2021-30 decade, transforming India into a high-middle-income economy by the end of the decade. EPS growth too will reflect the economy's growth. Stay solidly Overweight India.

Turbo-charged by a 34% surge in public investment, a widening privatization and asset monetization program, and a credible mechanism for cleaning up banks' bad assets, India's real GDP is likely to grow 13.5% in FY2021/22. With a labour market as flexible as any in Asia, corporate taxes as low as Singapore for new manufacturers, production-linked incentives, efficiency gains from privatization, and steadily-greater lending by cleaned-up banks, real GDP will grow 10% annually over the decade ahead. Stay Overweight India. 
India's economy received a fillip from the Budget for FY2021/22, which contained a 34.5% YoY increase in public investment (particularly infrastructure), a wider focus on privatization of government-owned companies (including 3 banks and an insurer) as part of a radical agenda that includes monetization of the government's other assets and land (via the the creation of Infrastructure Investment Trusts), and steps to work out banks' bad loan problems via an asset reconstruction company (for government-owned banks) that would take over, manage and then sell the bad loans on the market.  
This fiscal year's deficit is projected to be 9.5% of GDP, although this number includes more transparent accounting, particularly by bringing food subsidies back onto the government's books (rather than onto those of the Food Corporation of India). Even with that transparency, though, the actual deficit is unlikely to be larger than 8% of GDP -- and GDP likely to be higher than the government has forecast. With the big boost to public investment, the successful vaccine rollout, labour-market reforms, production-linked incentives, broad-based and widening privatization program, and mechanisms to unclog bank lending, we expect real GDP to grow 13.5% in FY2021/22, with CPI inflation averaging 4% YoY, which will allow policy rates to decline. Given the buoyancy in tax revenues, we expect the fiscal deficit to moderate to 4.5% of GDP next fiscal year, and a virtuous circle of lower interest rates and more crowding in of private investment. 
While FY2021/22 will see the completion of eight big-ticket strategic sales of public enterprises (SCI, BPCL, ConCor, Air India, IDBI, two banks and an insurer) and one large IPO (of LIC), privatizations and asset monetization will mark the medium-term roll-out of "minimum government, maximum governance", as the government steadily withdraws from running businesses, turning them over instead to the dynamism of entrepreneurial India and FDI. A rationally cleaned-up banking system will be positioned also to fund new lending, while FDI and domestic investment help the reformed Indian economy capture an increasing share of global value chains (GVCs) fleeing China for safer shores. We expect real GDP growth of 10% annually over the 2021-30 decade, transforming India into a high-middle-income economy by the end of the decade. EPS growth too will reflect the economy's growth. Stay solidly Overweight India.  

DSP BlackRock Liquidity Fund (DSLQYDG IN)

India: Public Investment, Privatization & Bank Reform Set the Stage for Faster Growth