Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Malaysia: Stability Paves Way for Better Policy; UMNO-PAS Long-Term Challenge

Malaysia: In a Middle-Income Trap of Low Growth Despite Sustained Fiscal Deficits

Malaysia: Imminent Political Realignments Raise Uncertainty over Electoral Outcomes

Malaysia in Political Flux: Muhyiddin Likely to Go, but Can Anwar Gain a Majority?

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

Ismail Sabri Yaakob, the third-ranking member of Malaysia's second-largest party in parliament (UMNO, the long-ruling party that was defeated at the 2018 general election) became Malaysia's 9th Prime Minister on Saturday (21 August 2021). Having never been the minister of Education, Trade &amp; Industry or Finance (the 3 traditional stepping-stones to the top job), the new PM is a relative lightweight in Malaysian politics: all previous prime ministers from UMNO have also simultaneously been Presidents of the party (while UMNO Deputy Presidents were Deputy PM).
Continuity in policy is assured, with the line-up of parties exactly the same as the previous government -- except that the Prime Minister is different, from UMNO rather than Bersatu (PPBM). This year's fiscal deficit (projected at 6% of GDP) is still expected to keep real GDP growth at just 2.5% YoY in 2H 2021; given high public debt, the deficit will need to be reined in next year, limiting the government's options. PM Ismail Sabri will also face persistent pressure from the UMNO leadership to drop (or ease up on) corruption cases against UMNO leaders like ex-PM Najib and party president Zahid Hamidi, while Muhyiddin's Bersatu  counters with pressure to keep prosecuting those cases. The Sarawak state election (originally due in June 2021, now likely only in March 2022) could be a crucial destabilizing factor, as the 18 Sarawak MPs (from the GPS group) are crucial to this government's parliamentary majority. 
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has chosen not to make sordid deals with tainted politicians, and instead bide his time until the next (15th) General Election, officially due in May 2023, but likely to be held sooner (mid-2022) if the Covid pandemic eases. On present indications, that will become a straight fight between a purely Malay-Islamist grouping (UMNO, Bersatu and the openly Islamist PAS) and a multi-racial coalition -- comprising two genuinely multi-racial parties (PKR and DAP) with a more ethnically-harmonious vision for Malaysia, supported by two smaller Malay parties (Amanah and Pejuang).  For the past 3 decades, UMNO has never formally aligned with PAS (which nonetheless gained ground in Kelantan and Terengganu, the two states with the largest proportion of Malays). The emergence of an UMNO-Bersatu-PAS alliance at the centre of the current government is shifting Malay politics increasingly in a pro-Shariah direction (including the imposition of hudud-based punishments), which will likely polarize the electorate by 2023. Competence (especially in dealing with Covid) will be a key determinant of the political outcome (and on that, both Muhyiddin and Ismail Sabri will be on the defensive), but the broader debate about Malaysia's future direction will be the key underlying question. That the Anwar-led alliance won the 2013 election (in terms of popular vote) and in 2018 (despite Anwar being in prison) suggests that the electorate will hand PH a clearer victory at the 15th General Election. But until that election is held, slow growth and a more polarized society will make the Malaysian market unattractive.

Ismail Sabri Yaakob, the third-ranking member of Malaysia's second-largest party in parliament (UMNO, the long-ruling party that was defeated at the 2018 general election) became Malaysia's 9th Prime Minister on Saturday (21 August 2021). Having never been the minister of Education, Trade &amp; Industry or Finance (the 3 traditional stepping-stones to the top job), the new PM is a relative lightweight in Malaysian politics: all previous prime ministers from UMNO have also simultaneously been Presidents of the party (while UMNO Deputy Presidents were Deputy PM).
Continuity in policy is assured, with the line-up of parties exactly the same as the previous government -- except that the Prime Minister is different, from UMNO rather than Bersatu (PPBM). This year's fiscal deficit (projected at 6% of GDP) is still expected to keep real GDP growth at just 2.5% YoY in 2H 2021; given high public debt, the deficit will need to be reined in next year, limiting the government's options. PM Ismail Sabri will also face persistent pressure from the UMNO leadership to drop (or ease up on) corruption cases against UMNO leaders like ex-PM Najib and party president Zahid Hamidi, while Muhyiddin's Bersatu  counters with pressure to keep prosecuting those cases. The Sarawak state election (originally due in June 2021, now likely only in March 2022) could be a crucial destabilizing factor, as the 18 Sarawak MPs (from the GPS group) are crucial to this government's parliamentary majority. 
Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has chosen not to make sordid deals with tainted politicians, and instead bide his time until the next (15th) General Election, officially due in May 2023, but likely to be held sooner (mid-2022) if the Covid pandemic eases. On present indications, that will become a straight fight between a purely Malay-Islamist grouping (UMNO, Bersatu and the openly Islamist PAS) and a multi-racial coalition -- comprising two genuinely multi-racial parties (PKR and DAP) with a more ethnically-harmonious vision for Malaysia, supported by two smaller Malay parties (Amanah and Pejuang).  For the past 3 decades, UMNO has never formally aligned with PAS (which nonetheless gained ground in Kelantan and Terengganu, the two states with the largest proportion of Malays). The emergence of an UMNO-Bersatu-PAS alliance at the centre of the current government is shifting Malay politics increasingly in a pro-Shariah direction (including the imposition of hudud-based punishments), which will likely polarize the electorate by 2023. Competence (especially in dealing with Covid) will be a key determinant of the political outcome (and on that, both Muhyiddin and Ismail Sabri will be on the defensive), but the broader debate about Malaysia's future direction will be the key underlying question. That the Anwar-led alliance won the 2013 election (in terms of popular vote) and in 2018 (despite Anwar being in prison) suggests that the electorate will hand PH a clearer victory at the 15th General Election. But until that election is held, slow growth and a more polarized society will make the Malaysian market unattractive. 

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) (FBMKLCI INDEX)

Malaysia: A Lightweight Takes Over, Setting up a Future Election over the Nation's Soul