Link REIT US$2.4bn Rights Issue - Mistimed but Yield at the Rights Price Might Be the Saving Grace

Link REIT – Hong Kong “Stabilizing”

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Worries In Both Hong Kong and Mainland China: The Hong Kong retail portfolio's rental reversion rate continued to be challenged YOY in FY 1H22, albeit slightly improving from a negative 1.8% in FY 2H21 to a barely positive low single digits. Not surprisingly, this weakness would appear to be with us for an extended period - especially given the continued border closures amid the COVID-19 disruption.  The mainland Chinese expansion remains worrisome, given the likely carry-on impact of stress seen in the broader mainland Chinese property market and its lenders; and*Poor Capital Management Becoming A Big Problem: Link REIT (823.HK) [Link] management also appears hell-bent on destroying shareholder value with deals which make little financial sense. Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou where the current annualized NPI yield barely covering the project’s cost of funding. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offer significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement. Bizarrely instead of weighing buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend shares against short-selling.

*Worries In Both Hong Kong and Mainland China: The Hong Kong retail portfolio's rental reversion rate continued to be challenged YOY in FY 1H22, albeit slightly improving from a negative 1.8% in FY 2H21 to a barely positive low single digits. Not surprisingly, this weakness would appear to be with us for an extended period - especially given the continued border closures amid the COVID-19 disruption.  The mainland Chinese expansion remains worrisome, given the likely carry-on impact of stress seen in the broader mainland Chinese property market and its lenders; and*Poor Capital Management Becoming A Big Problem: Link REIT (823.HK) [Link] management also appears hell-bent on destroying shareholder value with deals which make little financial sense. Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou where the current annualized NPI yield barely covering the project’s cost of funding. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offer significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement. Bizarrely instead of weighing buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend shares against short-selling. 

Link REIT

Link REIT – Looking For Handouts