Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

I investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Celltrion 3-Way Merger Timing & Trading Approach Aiming for Immediate Short Covering

Celltrion Pair: Entry Point on Latest Diversion

Celltrion Merger Announcement: Details, Questionable Aspects, & Trading Dynamics

A Merger of Three Celltrion Group Companies + Formation of a Celltrion Healthcare Holdings

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>Celltrion and Celltrion Healthcare, which have been moving quite tightly recently, experienced a significant level of divergence last Friday.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/646/original/1.png?1632020309" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230646"></figure></section><p>Celltrion vs. Celltrion Healthcare is at -1.72σ on a 20-day moving average as of last Friday's close. This level of price divergence is the largest since early June.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/230/647/original/image_95913332721632020426124.png?1632020428" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="230647"></figure><p>For the past month, Celltrion Healthcare's earnings estimates have been adjusted more significantly than those of Celltrion. On a local street consensus basis, Celltrion's 2022 net profit was revised down by 3.16%, while Celltrion Healthcare's was downgraded by 6.75%. Nevertheless, Celltrion Healthcare's 12M forward PER rose 3.69%p higher than that of Celltrion.</p><table class="table table-striped">
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"FY2022E"}'>FY2022E</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, T"}'>Celltrion, T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, T-1M"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Celltrion, T-1M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"MoM Δ"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>MoM Δ</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion H, T"}'>Celltrion H, T</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion H, T-1M"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Celltrion H, T-1M</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"MoM Δ"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>MoM Δ</td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NP to controlling stake"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]'>Consensus net profit to controlling stake</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":830}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]/10">₩830.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":857.1}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]/10">₩857.1B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.03161824757904565}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>-3.16%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":370}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩370.0B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":396.8}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"₩#,##0.0B"]'>₩396.8B</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-0.06754032258064518}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>-6.75%</strong></td>
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<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"12M PER "}'>12M forward PER</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":47.67}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]">47.67x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":46.68}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]' data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[6]">46.68x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.021208226221079735}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>+2.12%</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":52.29}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'>52.29x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":49.42}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"0.00x"]'>49.42x</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.058073654390934794}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,3,"0.00%",1]' data-sheets-formula="=(R[0]C[-2]-R[0]C[-1])/R[0]C[-1]"><strong>+5.81%</strong></td>
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<tr><td colspan="7" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: FnGuide"}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,4,"[$₩]#,##0"]'>Source: FnGuide</td></tr>
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Celltrion and Celltrion Healthcare, which have been moving quite tightly recently, experienced a significant level of divergence last Friday.Celltrion vs. Celltrion Healthcare is at -1.72σ on a 20-day moving average as of last Friday's close. This level of price divergence is the largest since early June.For the past month, Celltrion Healthcare's earnings estimates have been adjusted more significantly than those of Celltrion. On a local street consensus basis, Celltrion's 2022 net profit was revised down by 3.16%, while Celltrion Healthcare's was downgraded by 6.75%. Nevertheless, Celltrion Healthcare's 12M forward PER rose 3.69%p higher than that of Celltrion.











FY2022E
Celltrion, T
Celltrion, T-1M
MoM Δ
Celltrion H, T
Celltrion H, T-1M
MoM Δ


Consensus net profit to controlling stake
₩830.0B
₩857.1B
-3.16%
₩370.0B
₩396.8B
-6.75%


12M forward PER
47.67x
46.68x
+2.12%
52.29x
49.42x
+5.81%

Source: FnGuide



Last Friday's Price Divergence in Celltrion Vs. Celltrion Healthcare