Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KOSDAQ 150's passive outflow occurs on December 14th for Celltrion Healthcare, whereas it would be January 11th for Celltrion with KOSPI 200.</li>
<li>The estimated passive flow size (x ADTV) on their respective rebalancing trading days is anticipated to be approximately -2.79x (Celltrion Healthcare) and +1.76x (Celltrion).</li>
<li>We should monitor the potential expansion of the swap spread on December 14th. Additionally, contemplating an outright approach for Celltrion, akin to the Hanwha Ocean scenario, could be worth considering.</li>
</ul>


KOSDAQ 150's passive outflow occurs on December 14th for Celltrion Healthcare, whereas it would be January 11th for Celltrion with KOSPI 200.
The estimated passive flow size (x ADTV) on their respective rebalancing trading days is anticipated to be approximately -2.79x (Celltrion Healthcare) and +1.76x (Celltrion).
We should monitor the potential expansion of the swap spread on December 14th. Additionally, contemplating an outright approach for Celltrion, akin to the Hanwha Ocean scenario, could be worth considering.


Spread Trade Opportunities Arising from KQ150/KS200 Passive Flows in the Celltrion Merger

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-kodex-top5plus-total-return-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36723:1" rel="noopener">Samsung KODEX Top5Plus Total Return ETF (315930 KS)</a> tracks the FnGuide Top 5 Plus Index and has an AUM of KRW 1,357bn (~US$1bn).</li>
<li>We currently see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kt-g-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9320:1" rel="noopener">KT&amp;G Corporation (033780 KS)</a> in the index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There is between 1-2 days of ADV to trade on the potential add and delete and smaller flows on the other index members due to capping and funding changes.</li>
</ul>


The Samsung KODEX Top5Plus Total Return ETF (315930 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 5 Plus Index and has an AUM of KRW 1,357bn (~US$1bn).
We currently see a high probability of Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) replacing KT&amp;G Corporation (033780 KS) in the index at the June rebalance.
There is between 1-2 days of ADV to trade on the potential add and delete and smaller flows on the other index members due to capping and funding changes.


FnGuide Top 5 Plus Index Rebalance Preview: Celltrion Could Replace KT&G

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-kodex-fn-top10-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40203:1" rel="noopener">Samsung KODEX Fn Top10 Equal Weight ETF (395170 KS)</a> tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index and has an AUM of US$241m.</li>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a> in the index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>There will be 0.26x ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> while passives will need to sell 0.17x ADV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-sdi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:503:1" rel="noopener">Samsung SDI (006400 KS)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The Samsung KODEX Fn Top10 Equal Weight ETF (395170 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Equal Weight Index and has an AUM of US$241m.
We expect Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) will replace Samsung SDI (006400 KS) in the index at the March rebalance.
There will be 0.26x ADV to buy in Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) while passives will need to sell 0.17x ADV of Samsung SDI (006400 KS). 


FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Celltrion Could Replace Samsung SDI

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended yesterday, the changes will be announced early March and implemented at the close of trading on 14 March.</li>
<li>We forecast one change for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet and Game indices. There could be two changes for the BBIG Index.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/douzone-bizon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20161:1" rel="noopener">Douzone Bizon (012510 KS)</a> is up 65.5% in the last month and we'd look to lighten positions on this move higher.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended yesterday, the changes will be announced early March and implemented at the close of trading on 14 March.
We forecast one change for each of the Secondary Battery, Bio, Internet and Game indices. There could be two changes for the BBIG Index.

Douzone Bizon (012510 KS) is up 65.5% in the last month and we'd look to lighten positions on this move higher.


KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Douzone Bizon Does It Again

South Korea

Celltrion Healthcare Co.,Ltd develops and manufactures pharmaceutical biologics and chemically synthesized drugs. The Company specializes in the development of drugs for breast cancer, arthritis, leukemia, psoriasis, human rabies prevention, and influenza. Celltrion Healthcare markets its products to customers internationally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)

Spread Trade Opportunities Arising from KQ150/KS200 Passive Flows in the Celltrion Merger

This post delves into the detailed implications of the Celltrion merger on KOSPI 200/KOSDAQ 150 passive flows. It's crucial, as the widening swap...

Sanghyun Park

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

FnGuide Top 5 Plus Index Rebalance Preview: Celltrion Could Replace KT&G

Celltrion could replace KT&G in the FnGuide Top5 Plus Index in June. Passives will need to buy 1x ADV in Celltrion and sell 2x ADV in KT&G. There...

Brian Freitas

FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Celltrion Could Replace Samsung SDI

Celltrion could replace Samsung SDI in the FnGuide Top10 Equal Weight index at the March rebalance. There could be a second change depending on...

Brian Freitas

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Douzone Bizon Does It Again

There should be 1 change for each of the Battery, Bio, Internet and Game indices plus 2 changes for the BBIG Index. Douzone Bizon is repeating what...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)