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Senior Macro Strategist, TS Lombard

Martin Shenfield

Senior Macro Strategist

Research covering economic, politics & markets

TS Lombard

TS Lombard is the new research group formed through the merger of Lombard Street Research and Trusted Sources in August 2016. The merger has brought together two of the leading, and longest established, IRPs to create a unique offering combining best-in-breed macroeconomic forecasting and political and policy analysis. The group has a team of 25 analysts and strategists across offices in London, New York, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sao Paulo and New Delhi. 

LSR was founded in 1989 to produce UK economic forecasts. Services now include global macro analysis and forecasting,  in depth China coverage, proprietary indicators and models, asset allocation recommendations and tactical trading ideas. LSR ranked above BCA for the first time in the 2016 Extel survey of buy-side investors. 

Trusted Sources was founded in 2006 to provide political risk coverage of BRIC economies. Services now include country political risk coverage, in depth China policy coverage, MENA coverage, LatAm coverage, South East Asia coverage and asset allocation and tactical trading ideas. 

Core research capabilities: 
The framework combines macroeconomic forecasts with political and policy analysis to enable investors to make more fully informed allocations. TS Lombard encourages interaction with their team through on-site meetings and calls, conference calls, video presentations, lunches and conferences.  The group provides tailored services through client-specific combinations of research reports (daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly and quarterly as appropriate) including: 

China In Depth
LSR Daily Note
LSR View
Macro Picture
Asset Allocation
Macro Strategy
Country Policy/Political Notes
EM Strategy Monthly
EM Absolute Views

Geographic coverage and strategies:
Developed Markets (USA, Europe, UK, Japan), Emerging Markets (China, India, SE Asia, LatAm, MENA, Russia), Strategies (Asset Allocation (6 months), Tactical Trade ideas (6-12 weeks)). 


Macroeconomics

<p>Fears that higher funding costs will prevent shadow banks from servicing their debt obligations have led to investor panic over India’s already embattled financial sector. Making matters worse are higher oil prices and the consequent stiff macroeconomic headwinds that will hurt credit growth and the broader economic recovery. </p><ul>
<li>The government’s extraordinary takeover on 1 October of the Infrastructure Leasing &amp; Financial Services (IL&amp;FS) board stems the risk of contagion as it will ensure the lender has adequate liquidity to avert further defaults. </li>
<li>But liquidity will remain tight due to rising interest rates, a weakening rupee and growing investor risk aversion, resulting in funding challenges for nonbanking finance companies (NBFCs).</li>
<li>The rupee’s fall to fresh lows, as we expected, will keep markets jittery about the impact of high oil prices on India’s twin deficits and inflation; the government today cut fuel taxes, as we had predicted, and this will result in fiscal slippage.</li>
<li>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will feel compelled to tighten monetary policy.</li>
<li>The oil price impact and IL&amp;FS’s troubles are a one-two punch for India’s already battered financial sector.</li>
<li>No major lender will be allowed to fail, but regulations will be tightened further to tackle deep-set structural faults in the sector.</li>
<li>This will delay India’s investment revival and ultimately impinge on consumption demand as well.</li>
</ul>

Fears that higher funding costs will prevent shadow banks from servicing their debt obligations have led to investor panic over India’s already embattled financial sector. Making matters worse are higher oil prices and the consequent stiff macroeconomic headwinds that will hurt credit growth and the broader economic recovery. 
The government’s extraordinary takeover on 1 October of the Infrastructure Leasing &amp; Financial Services (IL&amp;FS) board stems the risk of contagion as it will ensure the lender has adequate liquidity to avert further defaults. 
But liquidity will remain tight due to rising interest rates, a weakening rupee and growing investor risk aversion, resulting in funding challenges for nonbanking finance companies (NBFCs).
The rupee’s fall to fresh lows, as we expected, will keep markets jittery about the impact of high oil prices on India’s twin deficits and inflation; the government today cut fuel taxes, as we had predicted, and this will result in fiscal slippage.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will feel compelled to tighten monetary policy.
The oil price impact and IL&amp;FS’s troubles are a one-two punch for India’s already battered financial sector.
No major lender will be allowed to fail, but regulations will be tightened further to tackle deep-set structural faults in the sector.
This will delay India’s investment revival and ultimately impinge on consumption demand as well.


Higher Oil Prices, Tighter Regulations & Political Constraints to Exacerbate Credit Crunch