Central Bank Independence Quietly Buried, Without a Murmur from Credit Rating Agencies

Higher Oil Prices, Tighter Regulations & Political Constraints to Exacerbate Credit Crunch

India - Political Competition Adds to Economic Risk

Senior Macro Strategist, TS Lombard

Martin Shenfield

Senior Macro Strategist

Research covering economic, politics & markets

TS Lombard

TS Lombard is the new research group formed through the merger of Lombard Street Research and Trusted Sources in August 2016. The merger has brought together two of the leading, and longest established, IRPs to create a unique offering combining best-in-breed macroeconomic forecasting and political and policy analysis. The group has a team of 25 analysts and strategists across offices in London, New York, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sao Paulo and New Delhi. 

LSR was founded in 1989 to produce UK economic forecasts. Services now include global macro analysis and forecasting,  in depth China coverage, proprietary indicators and models, asset allocation recommendations and tactical trading ideas. LSR ranked above BCA for the first time in the 2016 Extel survey of buy-side investors. 

Trusted Sources was founded in 2006 to provide political risk coverage of BRIC economies. Services now include country political risk coverage, in depth China policy coverage, MENA coverage, LatAm coverage, South East Asia coverage and asset allocation and tactical trading ideas. 

Core research capabilities: 
The framework combines macroeconomic forecasts with political and policy analysis to enable investors to make more fully informed allocations. TS Lombard encourages interaction with their team through on-site meetings and calls, conference calls, video presentations, lunches and conferences.  The group provides tailored services through client-specific combinations of research reports (daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly and quarterly as appropriate) including: 

China In Depth
LSR Daily Note
LSR View
Macro Picture
Asset Allocation
Macro Strategy
Country Policy/Political Notes
EM Strategy Monthly
EM Absolute Views

Geographic coverage and strategies:
Developed Markets (USA, Europe, UK, Japan), Emerging Markets (China, India, SE Asia, LatAm, MENA, Russia), Strategies (Asset Allocation (6 months), Tactical Trade ideas (6-12 weeks)). 


Macroeconomics

By Shumita Deveshwar, Director, India researchThe Reserve Bank of India’s approval of an interim dividend to the government from its surplus reserves is yet another example of the central bank conforming to the government’s wishes under the leadership of Governor Shaktikanta Das. While investors cheered the RBI’s softer monetary policy stance earlier this month, former RBI heads continue to warn against the government’s short-term bias and emphasize the need for RBI independence.<ul>
<li>Most policies that led to the spat between the RBI and the government spat have now been reversed</li>
<li>The growth focus has translated into easier banking and regulatory norms</li>
<li>A softer monetary policy puts the RBI’s hard-fought credibility at stake</li>
<li>Outflows due to political uncertainty and global headwinds will prove tough for a less credible RBI to counter</li>
<li>Loose fiscal and monetary policies put long-term macroeconomic stability at risk</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/298/original/SK1111111.PNG?1552912820" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82298"></figure>

By Shumita Deveshwar, Director, India researchThe Reserve Bank of India’s approval of an interim dividend to the government from its surplus reserves is yet another example of the central bank conforming to the government’s wishes under the leadership of Governor Shaktikanta Das. While investors cheered the RBI’s softer monetary policy stance earlier this month, former RBI heads continue to warn against the government’s short-term bias and emphasize the need for RBI independence.
Most policies that led to the spat between the RBI and the government spat have now been reversed
The growth focus has translated into easier banking and regulatory norms
A softer monetary policy puts the RBI’s hard-fought credibility at stake
Outflows due to political uncertainty and global headwinds will prove tough for a less credible RBI to counter
Loose fiscal and monetary policies put long-term macroeconomic stability at risk


RBI Credibility at Stake