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Senior Macro Strategist, TS Lombard

Martin Shenfield

Senior Macro Strategist

Research covering economic, politics & markets

TS Lombard

TS Lombard is the new research group formed through the merger of Lombard Street Research and Trusted Sources in August 2016. The merger has brought together two of the leading, and longest established, IRPs to create a unique offering combining best-in-breed macroeconomic forecasting and political and policy analysis. The group has a team of 25 analysts and strategists across offices in London, New York, Hong Kong, Beijing, Sao Paulo and New Delhi. 

LSR was founded in 1989 to produce UK economic forecasts. Services now include global macro analysis and forecasting,  in depth China coverage, proprietary indicators and models, asset allocation recommendations and tactical trading ideas. LSR ranked above BCA for the first time in the 2016 Extel survey of buy-side investors. 

Trusted Sources was founded in 2006 to provide political risk coverage of BRIC economies. Services now include country political risk coverage, in depth China policy coverage, MENA coverage, LatAm coverage, South East Asia coverage and asset allocation and tactical trading ideas. 

Core research capabilities: 
The framework combines macroeconomic forecasts with political and policy analysis to enable investors to make more fully informed allocations. TS Lombard encourages interaction with their team through on-site meetings and calls, conference calls, video presentations, lunches and conferences.  The group provides tailored services through client-specific combinations of research reports (daily, weekly, fortnightly, monthly and quarterly as appropriate) including: 

China In Depth
LSR Daily Note
LSR View
Macro Picture
Asset Allocation
Macro Strategy
Country Policy/Political Notes
EM Strategy Monthly
EM Absolute Views

Geographic coverage and strategies:
Developed Markets (USA, Europe, UK, Japan), Emerging Markets (China, India, SE Asia, LatAm, MENA, Russia), Strategies (Asset Allocation (6 months), Tactical Trade ideas (6-12 weeks)). 


Macroeconomics

<p>Recent opinion polls support our view that Indian politics is entering a more competitive phase. Below we examine the implications for national policymaking during the remainder of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s term in office.</p><ul>
<li>Two national opinion polls held in May and July 2018, respectively, show a narrowing of the vote gap between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition and the Indian National Congress (INC)-led alliance; voters’ economic concerns are eating into Modi’s lead.</li>
<li>Both surveys show that an expanded opposition alliance that includes more regional parties could produce a hung parliament, which would be negative for market sentiment because of the subsequent uncertainty.</li>
<li>Political competition is contributing to increased populism in an increasingly inflationary environment, making a hard landing for the economy after the elections more likely.</li>
<li>The BJP has an advantage in resources, messaging and organization, which in our central case should push it over the finish line in a close election; but economic factors are increasingly weighing against it.</li>
</ul>

Recent opinion polls support our view that Indian politics is entering a more competitive phase. Below we examine the implications for national policymaking during the remainder of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s term in office.
Two national opinion polls held in May and July 2018, respectively, show a narrowing of the vote gap between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led coalition and the Indian National Congress (INC)-led alliance; voters’ economic concerns are eating into Modi’s lead.
Both surveys show that an expanded opposition alliance that includes more regional parties could produce a hung parliament, which would be negative for market sentiment because of the subsequent uncertainty.
Political competition is contributing to increased populism in an increasingly inflationary environment, making a hard landing for the economy after the elections more likely.
The BJP has an advantage in resources, messaging and organization, which in our central case should push it over the finish line in a close election; but economic factors are increasingly weighing against it.


India - Political Competition Adds to Economic Risk