European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Kinetic&Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Increased Offer

I Squared/FirstGroup: Looming PUSU Deadline

Kinetic & Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Recommended Offer

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 21 July, a disciplined Kelsian dropped out of race for Go-Ahead, and won't be able to bid for six months therefore Kinetic/Globalvia consortium should be unrivaled in the takeover offer.</li>
<li>At 7.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, consideration is below 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for struggling rival Stagecoach, but the market is now pricing that the Kinetic/Globalvia consortium will complete the deal. </li>
<li>Gross spread is 0.93% and the estimated annual return would be 6.84% assuming settlement on 14 September (see timeline). <strong>Long</strong>.</li>
</ul>


On 21 July, a disciplined Kelsian dropped out of race for Go-Ahead, and won't be able to bid for six months therefore Kinetic/Globalvia consortium should be unrivaled in the takeover offer.
At 7.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, consideration is below 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for struggling rival Stagecoach, but the market is now pricing that the Kinetic/Globalvia consortium will complete the deal. 
Gross spread is 0.93% and the estimated annual return would be 6.84% assuming settlement on 14 September (see timeline). Long.


Clear Road for Kinetic/Globalvia Consortium