European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Kinetic & Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Recommended Offer

I Squared/FirstGroup: Looming PUSU Deadline

Clear Road for Kinetic/Globalvia Consortium

National Express/Stagecoach: All-Stock Merger

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Stagecoach has agreed to a <strong>105p cash offer</strong> from DWS (37% premium, 14.7x EV/Fwd EBIT). The board has withdrawn the prior recommendation for an all-share merger with National Express.</li>
<li>National Express could respond by increasing its offer in line with DWS's, but that would imply giving away c. 50% of the combined company, which I think unlikely.</li>
<li>The offer is not incredibly generous, but there are risks (soaring fuel prices, inflation, etc.). Gross spread is nil and the offer is likely to close.</li>
</ul>


Stagecoach has agreed to a 105p cash offer from DWS (37% premium, 14.7x EV/Fwd EBIT). The board has withdrawn the prior recommendation for an all-share merger with National Express.
National Express could respond by increasing its offer in line with DWS's, but that would imply giving away c. 50% of the combined company, which I think unlikely.
The offer is not incredibly generous, but there are risks (soaring fuel prices, inflation, etc.). Gross spread is nil and the offer is likely to close.


Stagecoach

DWS Gatecrashes NEX Offer for Stagecoach