European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Clear Road for Kinetic/Globalvia Consortium

Kinetic & Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Recommended Offer

I Squared/FirstGroup: Looming PUSU Deadline

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 4 August, the consortium sweetened the offer by 50p, 3.3%, to 1,550p/share, comprising 1,450p+100p special dividend (conditional upon Scheme becoming Effective); 13.3x Fwd P/E and 7.9x EV/Fwd EBIT.</li>
<li>Still below below the 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for Stagecoach, but the market believes that the deal will complete. Irrevocable undertakings plus letters of intent represent 26.86%.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 1.04%, 8.66% estimated annual return (assuming settlement and paying of the special dividend on 22 September). <strong>Reiterate long GOG LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


On 4 August, the consortium sweetened the offer by 50p, 3.3%, to 1,550p/share, comprising 1,450p+100p special dividend (conditional upon Scheme becoming Effective); 13.3x Fwd P/E and 7.9x EV/Fwd EBIT.
Still below below the 8.6x EV/Fwd EBIT offered by DWS for Stagecoach, but the market believes that the deal will complete. Irrevocable undertakings plus letters of intent represent 26.86%.
Gross spread is 1.04%, 8.66% estimated annual return (assuming settlement and paying of the special dividend on 22 September). Reiterate long GOG LN.


Kinetic&Globalvia/Go-Ahead: Increased Offer