Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

Japan Morning Connection: US Semis and Tech Set a Bullish Tone for Japan's SPE Majors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.</li>
<li>Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.</li>
<li>ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.</li>
</ul>


Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.
Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.
ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.


ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

ASML Holding NV

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations