Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. </li>
<li>What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. </li>
<li>The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. </li>
</ul>


ASML maintains its 2030 targets: revenue EUR44-60bn, Gross Margin 56-60%. But the narrative has changed, again. In 2022, it was Mature nodes (DUV) and EUV. In 2024, it's AI. 
What's changed? Lower growth in Smartphone, PC, Auto. AI bigger than expected. Server DRAM and HBM is the major positive change. NAND is revised down sharply. It's actually believable. 
The guidance implies Operating Profits growing between 9.5-17.5% Cagr over 2024-2030. That's pretty good but the stock is trading at 27x 2025 EPS, 22x 2026. No room for disappointment. 


ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
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<ul><li>ASML Holding N.V. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting both achievements and challenges.</li><li>The company recorded total net sales of EUR 7.5 billion, surpassing its own guidance, largely due to increased sales of deep ultraviolet (deep UV) systems and heightened Installed Base Management sales.</li><li>Net income for the quarter was EUR 2.1 billion, representing 27.8% of total net sales, with an EPS of EUR 5.28.</li></ul>

ASML Holding N.V. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting both achievements and challenges.The company recorded total net sales of EUR 7.5 billion, surpassing its own guidance, largely due to increased sales of deep ultraviolet (deep UV) systems and heightened Installed Base Management sales.Net income for the quarter was EUR 2.1 billion, representing 27.8% of total net sales, with an EPS of EUR 5.28.

China Woes and Weak Sales Projections Send ASML Shares Plunging—Is AI Still a Lifeline?

<ul>
<li>Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.</li>
<li>Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.</li>
<li>ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.</li>
</ul>


Comments focus on low bookings in 3Q24. The reset is much larger than this. ASML has capacity for 90 low-NA EUV machines in 2025-26. Demand in 2025 is below 50.
Bullish 2025-28 guidance (revenue / capacity) provided by ASML end of 2022 is finally resetting. 2025 Consensus Net Income forecast could reset by ~20%, 2026 by ~30%.
ASML finally factors in 1) weak end demand in all segments except for AI 2) Fab push out or cancellation  3) China accelerated Capex and over capacity are slowing.


ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion</li>
<li>Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022</li>
<li>Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025</li>
</ul>


ASML reported revenues of €7.5 billion, +19% QoQ and +11.9% YoY. This was €200 million above the high end of the guided range. Q424 guided to €9 billion
Logic Fab delays and a collapse in sales to China caused ASML to reduce their 2025 forecast to the low end of the €30 -€40 billion guided in November 2022
Despite these challenges, ASML's latest forecast still implies 16% YoY growth in 2025


<ul><li>ASML announced its second quarter 2024 financial results, revealing data that both supports and raises concerns about its short-term performance and long-term strategy.</li><li>The company posted total net sales of EUR 6.2 billion, slightly ahead of its guided figures, with net system sales contributing EUR 4.8 billion.</li><li>The net system sales were driven by 54% Logic and 46% Memory, with Installed Base Management sales slightly higher than expected at EUR 1.48 billion.</li></ul>

ASML announced its second quarter 2024 financial results, revealing data that both supports and raises concerns about its short-term performance and long-term strategy.The company posted total net sales of EUR 6.2 billion, slightly ahead of its guided figures, with net system sales contributing EUR 4.8 billion.The net system sales were driven by 54% Logic and 46% Memory, with Installed Base Management sales slightly higher than expected at EUR 1.48 billion.

ASML Holding N.V.: What Is The Impact Of Impact of the Chips Act and Global Expansion? - Major Drivers

Netherlands

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, and markets semiconductor manufacturing equipment, specifically machines for the production of chips through lithography. The Company services clients worldwide.

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ASML Holding NV (ASML US)

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

China Woes and Weak Sales Projections Send ASML Shares Plunging—Is AI Still a Lifeline?

ASML Holding N.V. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting both achievements and challenges. The company...

Baptista Research

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

ASML revenue guidance reset yesterday comes from management exuberance in 2022. It is not obvious that it implies a “broad negative surprise” in...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

ASML downward revision of their 2025 forecast tanked the stock, and semiconductors generally, overnight. Yet they are still projecting 16% YoY...

William Keating

ASML Holding N.V.: What Is The Impact Of Impact of the Chips Act and Global Expansion? - Major Drivers

ASML announced its second quarter 2024 financial results, revealing data that both supports and raises concerns about its short-term performance...

Baptista Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

​ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...

Nicolas Baratte

China Woes and Weak Sales Projections Send ASML Shares Plunging—Is AI Still a Lifeline?

ASML Holding N.V. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting both achievements and challenges. The company...

Baptista Research

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

ASML revenue guidance reset yesterday comes from management exuberance in 2022. It is not obvious that it implies a “broad negative surprise” in...

Nicolas Baratte

ASML Tanks Semis On Tepid 2025 Outlook

ASML downward revision of their 2025 forecast tanked the stock, and semiconductors generally, overnight. Yet they are still projecting 16% YoY...

William Keating

ASML Holding N.V.: What Is The Impact Of Impact of the Chips Act and Global Expansion? - Major Drivers

ASML announced its second quarter 2024 financial results, revealing data that both supports and raises concerns about its short-term performance...

Baptista Research

ASML maintains 2030 targets, growth driven by AI, DRAM / HBM and Logic. Lower growth for mature nodes and NAND. Operating profits expected to grow...