Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Nicolas Baratte has been a financial analyst since 2000, covering the Technology sector in Asia mostly, and Global Tech in a couple of jobs. Nicolas has worked on the sell-side for JPMorgan, CLSA and Macquarie. On the buy-side for a Tiger fund and Prudential. Nicolas has covered Asian semiconductors, Asian hardware and components, and the global Semi supply chain. In addition to stock coverage, he also publishes research on sectors as that often shows clearer trends and pinpoints the inflection points in a sharper way. Nicolas lives mostly in Taiwan, sometimes in France and is in New York regularly.

Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT): Benefitting From The Market Demand in ICAPS and Semiconductors! - Major Drivers

ASML Investor Day: Oops They Did It Again. Different Story, Same 2030 Targets.

AMAT. No Beat, No Raise, No Slump. But Why?

ASML 3Q24: The Huge Reset Is Mostly the Result of Company's Miscalculations

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Management reiterates 1) growth accelerating on Advanced Logic (Gate All Around, Back Side Power), Advanced Packaging incl HBM, DRAM capacity additions  2) improving margins  3) energy-efficient computing driving materials innovation.</li>
<li>The risk is Mature node Capex slowdown in China, which we think is underestimated for 2025. China revenue: AMAT 30%, ASML 47%.</li>
<li>AMAT is trading at reasonable multiples on modest Consensus expectations, upside possible as 2nm and HBM accelerate. ASML is trading on rich multiples, on rich expectations, less room for upside.</li>
</ul>


Management reiterates 1) growth accelerating on Advanced Logic (Gate All Around, Back Side Power), Advanced Packaging incl HBM, DRAM capacity additions  2) improving margins  3) energy-efficient computing driving materials innovation.
The risk is Mature node Capex slowdown in China, which we think is underestimated for 2025. China revenue: AMAT 30%, ASML 47%.
AMAT is trading at reasonable multiples on modest Consensus expectations, upside possible as 2nm and HBM accelerate. ASML is trading on rich multiples, on rich expectations, less room for upside.


Applied Materials: The Stock Is Reasonably Valued on Modest Expectations. More Attractive than ASML.