Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after Easter.</li><li>We are leaning dovish relative to consensus, but due to VAT increases in Spanish electricity markets, it will not look like an outright home-run for disinflationistas in March either unless markets decide to focus on the TAX-constant HICP rates.</li><li>Spanish HICP (Wednesday) -&gt; Consensus 1.4%, Steno Research 1.26% </li></ul>

The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after Easter.We are leaning dovish relative to consensus, but due to VAT increases in Spanish electricity markets, it will not look like an outright home-run for disinflationistas in March either unless markets decide to focus on the TAX-constant HICP rates.Spanish HICP (Wednesday) -&gt; Consensus 1.4%, Steno Research 1.26% 

EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey for March maintained a bullish stance on equity investment, with a consistent increase in the weighting for the fifth consecutive month, now standing at 28% overweight (OW), compared to 21% OW in February and 9% OW in January.</li><li>There has been a notable shift toward allocating more investment to equities in the EU, global emerging markets (GEM) and Japan, leading to a reduction in the weighting on US equities to 8% OW from 21% OW.</li><li>This shift is underpinned by the belief that the global economy is poised to surpass projections. </li></ul>

Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey for March maintained a bullish stance on equity investment, with a consistent increase in the weighting for the fifth consecutive month, now standing at 28% overweight (OW), compared to 21% OW in February and 9% OW in January.There has been a notable shift toward allocating more investment to equities in the EU, global emerging markets (GEM) and Japan, leading to a reduction in the weighting on US equities to 8% OW from 21% OW.This shift is underpinned by the belief that the global economy is poised to surpass projections. 

Special Report: FMS Still Favors Equities but More Diversified

<ul><li>It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found out there.</li><li>I went to London to meet with a bunch of the big funds in town, hot on the heels of Powell’s reflationary Fed meeting on Wednesday.</li><li>It almost annoyed me how “vanilla” my analysis had to be on the back of it, as the Fed is moving the needle lower and lower and lower on the implied Real Fed Funds rate every meeting currently, no matter the underlying developments in inflation and/or growth.</li></ul>

It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found out there.I went to London to meet with a bunch of the big funds in town, hot on the heels of Powell’s reflationary Fed meeting on Wednesday.It almost annoyed me how “vanilla” my analysis had to be on the back of it, as the Fed is moving the needle lower and lower and lower on the implied Real Fed Funds rate every meeting currently, no matter the underlying developments in inflation and/or growth.

Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Yesterday’s FOMC failed to deliver the hawkish policy messaging that many in the market feared.</li><li>The policy statement was all but unchanged and the dots continued to reflect a median expectation that rates would drop 75bps this year.</li><li>Longer run rate projections were lifted a little though and the economic projections reflected a bias towards stronger growth and somewhat higher inflation.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Yesterday’s FOMC failed to deliver the hawkish policy messaging that many in the market feared.The policy statement was all but unchanged and the dots continued to reflect a median expectation that rates would drop 75bps this year.Longer run rate projections were lifted a little though and the economic projections reflected a bias towards stronger growth and somewhat higher inflation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed as CHF Slides on Surprise SNB Rate Cut

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The exceptional Covid-induced monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wound down, but not fast enough. Fiscal deficits averaged 10% of GDP for 4 years, far larger and longer than 2009-11.  </li>
<li>QT was abandoned in Jul'23, and M2 has contracted at a modest pace. Upside growth surprises are thus likely to continue, and will require Q2CY24 M2 to decline more sharply. </li>
<li>Once core CPE inflation abates below 2.5%YoY (likely Jun'24) the first 25bp rate cut will occur at the Jul'24 FOMC, then similar cuts in Sep'24 and Dec'24. Benign for markets. </li>
</ul>


The exceptional Covid-induced monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wound down, but not fast enough. Fiscal deficits averaged 10% of GDP for 4 years, far larger and longer than 2009-11.  
QT was abandoned in Jul'23, and M2 has contracted at a modest pace. Upside growth surprises are thus likely to continue, and will require Q2CY24 M2 to decline more sharply. 
Once core CPE inflation abates below 2.5%YoY (likely Jun'24) the first 25bp rate cut will occur at the Jul'24 FOMC, then similar cuts in Sep'24 and Dec'24. Benign for markets. 


Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

United States

The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk

The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after...

Steno Research

Special Report: FMS Still Favors Equities but More Diversified

Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey for March maintained a bullish stance on equity investment, with a consistent increase in the...

Krungthai XSpring

Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?

It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed as CHF Slides on Surprise SNB Rate Cut

The policy statement was all but unchanged and the dots continued to reflect a median expectation that rates would drop 75bps this year.

Scotiabank

Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EUR-flation watch: Spain is the dovish hawk

The preliminary European inflation numbers will be released during this week, while Germany has decided to postpone the release until after...

Steno Research

Special Report: FMS Still Favors Equities but More Diversified

Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey for March maintained a bullish stance on equity investment, with a consistent increase in the...

Krungthai XSpring

Steno Signals #92 – The head fake reflation?

It is always lovely to get back on the road and meet a load of fund managers, and it is nice to see that a few reflation skepticals are still found...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed as CHF Slides on Surprise SNB Rate Cut

The policy statement was all but unchanged and the dots continued to reflect a median expectation that rates would drop 75bps this year.

Scotiabank

Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

​Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Fiscal deficits averaged 9.95% of GDP in 2020-2023, M2 growth 18.2%YoY in Mar'20-Feb'22. Latter needs to decline faster in Q2CY24 to offset the...