Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from policymakers, including the verbal FX intervention from MoF and BoJ today, and the Spanish HICP numbers, which we hit right on the mark! The benign base effects and dovish outlook has potentially paved the way for a cut in June, but what should you look out for in the meantime?</li><li>We give you 5 topics from our watchlist.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro.</li></ul>

Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from policymakers, including the verbal FX intervention from MoF and BoJ today, and the Spanish HICP numbers, which we hit right on the mark! The benign base effects and dovish outlook has potentially paved the way for a cut in June, but what should you look out for in the meantime?We give you 5 topics from our watchlist.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro.

5 Things We Watch – Cyclicals, Baltimore Bridge, ECB, USDJPY & Sentiment

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is a little softer for a second day running as it continues to edge away from recent range peaks.</li><li>Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy prospects remain unclear.</li><li>A slightly firmer yuan, supported by the PBoC setting another strong fixing rate, has added to pressure on the USD somewhat in broad terms. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is a little softer for a second day running as it continues to edge away from recent range peaks.Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy prospects remain unclear.A slightly firmer yuan, supported by the PBoC setting another strong fixing rate, has added to pressure on the USD somewhat in broad terms. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! The weather in Copenhagen is sunny, and so is the mood in markets, with aggregate equity fund flows in the US reaching 2-year highs this week.</li><li>Markets are certainly back into full risk-on mode, with the Fed promising rate cuts amidst reflationary trends in the US, which is a trend that is slowly but surely spreading to the rest of the world.</li><li>The cyclical rebound is not truly there yet in Europe, which means that European indices are starting to get flagged as overpriced in our quant-models.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! The weather in Copenhagen is sunny, and so is the mood in markets, with aggregate equity fund flows in the US reaching 2-year highs this week.Markets are certainly back into full risk-on mode, with the Fed promising rate cuts amidst reflationary trends in the US, which is a trend that is slowly but surely spreading to the rest of the world.The cyclical rebound is not truly there yet in Europe, which means that European indices are starting to get flagged as overpriced in our quant-models.

Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Price expectations in services ex. real estate continued its downtrend and we now find ourselves at 2018-19 levels in what is pointing towards lower core inflation readings in the second half of the year. </li><li>Meanwhile price expectations in manufacturing climbed and looks like they have bottomed out at levels consistent with the price mandate of the ECB. </li><li>The drop in input prices, the global reflation story and expectations of ECB rate cuts seem to have had an effect and the question now becomes which of the two manufacturing and service price expectations will impact inflation come Summer and Fall the most.   </li></ul>

Price expectations in services ex. real estate continued its downtrend and we now find ourselves at 2018-19 levels in what is pointing towards lower core inflation readings in the second half of the year. Meanwhile price expectations in manufacturing climbed and looks like they have bottomed out at levels consistent with the price mandate of the ECB. The drop in input prices, the global reflation story and expectations of ECB rate cuts seem to have had an effect and the question now becomes which of the two manufacturing and service price expectations will impact inflation come Summer and Fall the most.   

<ul><li>Last week we took healthy profits in some of our global reflation bets.</li><li>We got out of silver and copper, but remain in the broad materials ETF.</li><li>Data out of China is a bit unclear with some prints being bullish and others bearish and then ambiguous data points such as the BOOMING copper stock. </li></ul>

Last week we took healthy profits in some of our global reflation bets.We got out of silver and copper, but remain in the broad materials ETF.Data out of China is a bit unclear with some prints being bullish and others bearish and then ambiguous data points such as the BOOMING copper stock. 

Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles, while something is cooking in China

United States

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5 Things We Watch – Cyclicals, Baltimore Bridge, ECB, USDJPY & Sentiment

Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch – Time to get out of the cyclical trade?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! The weather in Copenhagen is sunny, and so is the mood in markets, with...

Steno Research

Ifo Nugget: What reflation in Germany?

Price expectations in services ex. real estate continued its downtrend and we now find ourselves at 2018-19 levels in what is pointing towards...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #62: Biden is selling crude straddles, while something is cooking in China

Last week we took healthy profits in some of our global reflation bets. We got out of silver and copper, but remain in the broad materials ETF.

Steno Research

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