Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 34 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

Biden's Catastrophic Debate Likely to Lead to 1968-Repeat; Can It End Differently?

US: On Track for a Rate Cut in Jun'24 as Core PCE Inflation Eases MoM and YoY

US Political Backdrop Raises Risks of Fiscal and Monetary Policies Reflating the Economy

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The exceptional Covid-induced monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wound down, but not fast enough. Fiscal deficits averaged 10% of GDP for 4 years, far larger and longer than 2009-11.  </li>
<li>QT was abandoned in Jul'23, and M2 has contracted at a modest pace. Upside growth surprises are thus likely to continue, and will require Q2CY24 M2 to decline more sharply. </li>
<li>Once core CPE inflation abates below 2.5%YoY (likely Jun'24) the first 25bp rate cut will occur at the Jul'24 FOMC, then similar cuts in Sep'24 and Dec'24. Benign for markets. </li>
</ul>


The exceptional Covid-induced monetary and fiscal stimulus is being wound down, but not fast enough. Fiscal deficits averaged 10% of GDP for 4 years, far larger and longer than 2009-11.  
QT was abandoned in Jul'23, and M2 has contracted at a modest pace. Upside growth surprises are thus likely to continue, and will require Q2CY24 M2 to decline more sharply. 
Once core CPE inflation abates below 2.5%YoY (likely Jun'24) the first 25bp rate cut will occur at the Jul'24 FOMC, then similar cuts in Sep'24 and Dec'24. Benign for markets. 


iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus