Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

PK Basu has 35 years experience covering Asia's economies and markets (equities, fixed income and currencies), including 20 years covering the global economy. He was Chief Economist (SE Asia & India) at Credit Suisse First Boston for 5 years, and Chief Asia (x-Jpn) Economist at Daiwa Securities for a similar period. Among other roles, he was global head of research at Maybank Kim Eng, Malaysia equity research head and chief ASEAN economist at Macquarie, Chief Economist at ICICI Securities, ASEAN economist and Asia sector strategist at UBS and the first chief economist at Khazanah Nasional (where he was co-head of research, and led all agri-business initiatives). PK Basu started his career in the Asia Service of WEFA (Wharton Econometrics) in Philadelphia in 1990, rising to be Director of their Asia Service in June 1994. 
PK's book, "Asia Reborn: A continent rises from the ravages of Colonialism and War to a New Dynamism" won the Tata Literature First Book Award (non-fiction) for 2018. It is the first single chronicle of the modern economic and political history of the whole of Asia (from Iraq and Turkey to Korea and Japan, and everything in between), told from an Asian perspective.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

Rate-Cutting Agenda Stays, Growth Buoyed by Massive Fiscal Stimulus

US Benign This Year: Trade Recession Over, but Rates Still Likely to Decline

US FOMC Projections Too Pessimistic; Two Rate Cuts Likely in 2024 as Inflation Abates

US: Increase Weight in Bonds Vs Equities in the Early Part of 2024

Mint Macro Roundup: US Dec CPI up 3.4% Beating Expectations yet Rate Cut Optimism Remains Intact

US Employment Data Confirms a Weakening Economy

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Real GDP grew 2.5% in CY23, helped by exports (+2.7%), PCE (+2.2%), government spending (+4.4%), and falling imports (-1.7%). Slower PCE and government-spending to reduce growth to ~1% in H1CY24. </li>
<li>Core PCE inflation (the Fed's target) eased to 2.93%YoY in Dec'23, the lowest in 33 months. More crucially, MoM annualized gains in core PCE averaged 1.85% in H2CY23. </li>
<li>13 months of M2 contraction, and deceleration in RGDP and core PCE, provide the perfect backdrop for a rate cut in Jun'24. Expect FOMC to hint at that this week. </li>
</ul>


Real GDP grew 2.5% in CY23, helped by exports (+2.7%), PCE (+2.2%), government spending (+4.4%), and falling imports (-1.7%). Slower PCE and government-spending to reduce growth to ~1% in H1CY24. 
Core PCE inflation (the Fed's target) eased to 2.93%YoY in Dec'23, the lowest in 33 months. More crucially, MoM annualized gains in core PCE averaged 1.85% in H2CY23. 
13 months of M2 contraction, and deceleration in RGDP and core PCE, provide the perfect backdrop for a rate cut in Jun'24. Expect FOMC to hint at that this week. 


US: On Track for a Rate Cut in Jun'24 as Core PCE Inflation Eases MoM and YoY