Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

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<ul>
<li>Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve.</li>
<li>However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li>In our analysis last week, we delved into the situation in Turkey and arrived at the following conclusion: The capable technocratic approach is more likely to succeed than the resurgence of economic populism.</li>
</ul>





Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve.
However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.






In our analysis last week, we delved into the situation in Turkey and arrived at the following conclusion: The capable technocratic approach is more likely to succeed than the resurgence of economic populism.


EM by EM #20 Another Energy Squeeze in the Cards?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?</li>
<li>More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength</li>
<li><span style="font-weight: 400;">We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.</span></li>
</ul>


Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentiment. OPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil?
More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD strength
We have built a sentiment tracker that uses FOMC minutes and speeches of Fed members as data and assigns positive and negative scores to adjectives in order to gauge what the Fed’s sentiment on the economy is.


Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul>
<li>In our Out of the Box series we aim at addressing emerging topics before they turn into consensus narratives to be ahead of the curve in price action.</li>
<li>The below chart made the rounds lately as energy prices have started increasing again due to the tight supply side caused by the Saudi Arabians and Russians.</li>
<li>We admit that the study comparing the 1970s to today is mostly esoteric, but we have ourselves pondered whether inflation dynamics could return in a second wave.</li>
</ul>


In our Out of the Box series we aim at addressing emerging topics before they turn into consensus narratives to be ahead of the curve in price action.
The below chart made the rounds lately as energy prices have started increasing again due to the tight supply side caused by the Saudi Arabians and Russians.
We admit that the study comparing the 1970s to today is mostly esoteric, but we have ourselves pondered whether inflation dynamics could return in a second wave.


Out of the Box #18: Time for the Second Inflation Wave? AAAAAAH!

<ul>
<li>Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.</li>
<li>It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.</li>
<li>An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4.
It leaves a smell of 2022 in the air and we note how the USD, bond yields AND energy/commodity prices move up in tandem.
An odd cocktail, which can only happen, when Zars and Muftis are in charge of the supply/demand balance in global energy markets.


Energy Watch: Can Oil Rally 25% Further in Q4?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

EM by EM #20 Another Energy Squeeze in the Cards?

Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the...

Steno Research

Services Nugget: How Do the Central Banks React?

Takeaways: Divergence between Fed and ISM sentimentOPEC cuts and manufacturing bullish oil? More ground to cover for Powell to be reflected in USD...

Steno Research

Out of the Box #18: Time for the Second Inflation Wave? AAAAAAH!

In our Out of the Box series we aim at addressing emerging topics before they turn into consensus narratives to be ahead of the curve in price...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: Can Oil Rally 25% Further in Q4?

Welcome to this short and sweet Energy Watch on the back of the Saudi/Russian decision to prolong cuts of supply through Q4. It leaves a smell of...

Steno Research

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

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