Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate.</li>
<li>With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition of the ‘Watch Series’, where we look for clues on the state of the US parallel in particular.</li>
<li>Our findings in brief: Favorable fixings counter forced selling, Record low affordability discourages buying, Little volume and stalemate in price, Weakening labor market and layoffs remain THE triggers for potential selloff.</li>
</ul>


These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate.
With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition of the ‘Watch Series’, where we look for clues on the state of the US parallel in particular.
Our findings in brief: Favorable fixings counter forced selling, Record low affordability discourages buying, Little volume and stalemate in price, Weakening labor market and layoffs remain THE triggers for potential selloff.


Real Estate Watch: Too Early to Call off the Crisis in Western Markets

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.</li>
<li>We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).</li>
<li>If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
</ul>


Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int'l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.


10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Credit

<ul><li>Highlights: GLOBAL US inflation remained moderate in July</li><li>China’s economy is faltering: trade slumps and fears of deflation grow</li><li>The UK economy rises at an unexpectedly fast rate</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Highlights: GLOBAL US inflation remained moderate in JulyChina’s economy is faltering: trade slumps and fears of deflation growThe UK economy rises at an unexpectedly fast rateContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 15, 2023

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul>
<li>On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China.</li>
<li>The executive order is a follow-up on the October 7, 2022 order to ban exports of advanced chips and other strategic technology, but the executive order focuses on investment in Chinese firms that operate in these areas, which was seen as a loophole in the October 7 order.</li>
<li>The Investment Screening order stipulates certain areas that are simply banned from investments, some areas where the government needs to be notified and then some areas that are completely exempt.</li>
</ul>


On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China.
The executive order is a follow-up on the October 7, 2022 order to ban exports of advanced chips and other strategic technology, but the executive order focuses on investment in Chinese firms that operate in these areas, which was seen as a loophole in the October 7 order.
The Investment Screening order stipulates certain areas that are simply banned from investments, some areas where the government needs to be notified and then some areas that are completely exempt.


Investment Screening: Why Biden’s Order is Actually a Good Sign for US-China Relations

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.</li>
<li>If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.</li>
</ul>


We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former largest developer) is to suspend trading of at least 10 onshore bonds after a week where they failed to pay coupons of a couple of international payments.
The Hang Seng Property Index (HSP) is down 20% y-t-d but only lost 0.2% on Friday despite another landslide in the Country Garden stock.
If the HSP Index drops over the coming days, it ought to be taken as a signal that Chinese RE credit will decline further due to a lack of confidence in the financial system.


Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Real Estate Watch: Too Early to Call off the Crisis in Western Markets

These past few weeks have been all about China and China is all about real estate. With that, welcome to this week’s real estate-focused edition...

Steno Research

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

Test of Key Supports: $93 on $ACWI, $47.50 on $ACWX, $70 on $EFA, 4200 on EURO $STOXX 50. As long as 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX and $DXY remain...

Vermilion Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 15, 2023

US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY. Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.

BRI Danareksa Research

Investment Screening: Why Biden’s Order is Actually a Good Sign for US-China Relations

On August 9th, President Biden signed an executive order which addresses investment from US companies and individuals into China. The executive...

Steno Research

Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!

We have spent this Sunday evening trying to prepare ourselves for the opening given the turmoil expected in China after Country Gardens (the former...

Steno Research

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P/E

Dividend (Yield)