Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).</li>
<li>As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.</li>
</ul>


Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.


Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We scrutinize market dynamics following the blowout earnings report of the world’s hottest stock, NVIDIA. Something definitely changed.</li>
<li>Incoming PMI data from the Eurozone seriously questions the ‘soft landing narrative,’ which we think should force the end of the global central bank tightening cycle. </li>
<li>China’s economic woes continue to grow, and the focus has now shifted to ending the stellar depreciation of the Yuan.</li>
</ul>


We scrutinize market dynamics following the blowout earnings report of the world’s hottest stock, NVIDIA. Something definitely changed.
Incoming PMI data from the Eurozone seriously questions the ‘soft landing narrative,’ which we think should force the end of the global central bank tightening cycle. 
China’s economic woes continue to grow, and the focus has now shifted to ending the stellar depreciation of the Yuan.


The Weekly Market Monitor – One Strike, Two Strikes, …

<ul>
<li>The recent rise in interest rates is leading to a further shift in cross-asset valuation.</li>
<li>The volatility-adjusted yields of equity-related asset classes have become even less attractive than those of bond-related asset classes.</li>
<li>The case for bond investments becomes even stronger when considering that the correlation between equity and bond returns is remarkably high, diminishing diversification benefits.</li>
</ul>


The recent rise in interest rates is leading to a further shift in cross-asset valuation.
The volatility-adjusted yields of equity-related asset classes have become even less attractive than those of bond-related asset classes.
The case for bond investments becomes even stronger when considering that the correlation between equity and bond returns is remarkably high, diminishing diversification benefits.


Risk-Adjusted Yields and High Correlation Make Equities Unattractive!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Credit

<ul><li>Sentiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.</li><li>The monthly growth reached 0.7%, highest since Feb-23, driven by strong sales during Amazon Prime day.</li><li>US Fed minutes of July’s FOMC meeting shows that some participants already in favor of keeping the rate steady due to the stance of monetary policy becoming too restrictive. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Sentiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.The monthly growth reached 0.7%, highest since Feb-23, driven by strong sales during Amazon Prime day.US Fed minutes of July’s FOMC meeting shows that some participants already in favor of keeping the rate steady due to the stance of monetary policy becoming too restrictive. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 22, 2023

<ul>
<li>Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.</li>
<li>Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward</li>
<li>Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.</li>
</ul>


Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
Longer-Term support on the S&amp;P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.


Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

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US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) (GT10 GOVT)

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

We remain constructive on global equities as long as $ACWI remains above $93 (1+ year base support). 10-year Treasury yield $TNX holding below 4.3...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – One Strike, Two Strikes, …

Market reaction to lower-than-expected US inflation numbers and blowout NVIDIA earnings is different from what is used to be. Three strikes and out?

Jeroen Blokland

Risk-Adjusted Yields and High Correlation Make Equities Unattractive!

Volatility-adjusted yields are much lower for equity-like asset classes than for bond-like asset classes, which does not bode well when correlation...

Jeroen Blokland

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 22, 2023

entiment against the US’s economy US Retail Sales growth exceed expectation with 3.2% y-y (vs. cons: 1.5%), the fastest growth pace in 5-months.

BRI Danareksa Research

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

$SPX broke support discussed in our Aug 8 Compass (50-day MA/4460), leading to change in character (now sell the rips) and deeper pullback. Expect...

Vermilion Research

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