Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.</li>
<li>The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite China apparently suffering from long-covid symptoms economically.</li>
<li>Chinese money and credit trends look worse than US trends post Lehman, which means that either China rebounds or else it is the end of the Chinese economy as we know it! We have timed our rotation from high-beta tech/AI to Energy/Commodity proxies amazingly well, but we need to remain vigilant at this juncture.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly flagship editorial.
The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite China apparently suffering from long-covid symptoms economically.
Chinese money and credit trends look worse than US trends post Lehman, which means that either China rebounds or else it is the end of the Chinese economy as we know it! We have timed our rotation from high-beta tech/AI to Energy/Commodity proxies amazingly well, but we need to remain vigilant at this juncture.


Steno Signals #60: Worse than Lehman in China!? The 3 Most Important Questions Right Now!

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?</li><li>Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.</li><li>We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.</li></ul>

Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In September, issuance and QT in SGBs ramps up to more than 9 bn/month from nothing during the holidays.</li><li>Reduced ECB buying and a rate hike pause while long-term inflation expectations rise suggest "risk-premium".</li><li>Tighter covered spreads=True</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In September, issuance and QT in SGBs ramps up to more than 9 bn/month from nothing during the holidays.Reduced ECB buying and a rate hike pause while long-term inflation expectations rise suggest "risk-premium".Tighter covered spreads=TrueContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SEK rates weekly: Bond issuance about to level up

<ul><li>In recent months, investors and economists have marked down the probability of a recession, after growth has surprised on the upside and inflation has surprised on the downside.</li><li>This has fueled equity prices, lifted interest rates , and weighed on the US dollar.</li><li>Put together, it looks like the perfect picture of a soft landing – everyone is getting exactly what they want – slowing inflation and a strong economy.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

In recent months, investors and economists have marked down the probability of a recession, after growth has surprised on the upside and inflation has surprised on the downside.This has fueled equity prices, lifted interest rates , and weighed on the US dollar.Put together, it looks like the perfect picture of a soft landing – everyone is getting exactly what they want – slowing inflation and a strong economy.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

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Steno Signals #60: Worse than Lehman in China!? The 3 Most Important Questions Right Now!

The markets over the past week or two have made little sense as commodities (especially energy) have continued to outperform risk assets despite...

Steno Research

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

With MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation back to its 2022 levels, is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

SEK rates weekly: Bond issuance about to level up

In September, issuance and QT in SGBs ramps up to more than 9 bn/month from nothing during the holidays. Reduced ECB buying and a rate hike pause...

Nordea

Macro & Markets: Soft landing dreams

Fading recession risks.In recent months, investors and economists have marked down the probability of a recession, after growth has surprised on...

Nordea

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