Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.</li><li>The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.</li><li>It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) credibility could be tested as it exits its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and yield curve control (YCC) due to political pressure.  </li>
<li>The European Central Bank strongly hinted that the peak in short-term interest rates may have been reached. Markets seem to be betting on a spring decline in Eurozone interest rates. </li>
<li>The latest Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting confirmed a higher for longer policy stance in 2024, although the FOMC will allegedly receive more dovish voting members. </li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) credibility could be tested as it exits its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) and yield curve control (YCC) due to political pressure.  
The European Central Bank strongly hinted that the peak in short-term interest rates may have been reached. Markets seem to be betting on a spring decline in Eurozone interest rates. 
The latest Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting confirmed a higher for longer policy stance in 2024, although the FOMC will allegedly receive more dovish voting members. 


BoJ Risks Major Credibility Test, While Fed and ECB Send Different Signals About Peak Rates

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>It’s Central Bank bonanza once again, and that of course means that we will take you through the biggest central bank meetings and give you our take on them, as well as provide you with other observations of relevance for the time to come.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: FOMC Meeting later today, BoE meeting tomorrow, Crude prices and the energy trade, the growing difference between GDI and GDP and BoJ</li><li>First it was a pause, then we got a hike and now it looks like we are back at pause with the market having priced in another 11 bps coming at the end of the year.</li></ul>

It’s Central Bank bonanza once again, and that of course means that we will take you through the biggest central bank meetings and give you our take on them, as well as provide you with other observations of relevance for the time to come.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro: FOMC Meeting later today, BoE meeting tomorrow, Crude prices and the energy trade, the growing difference between GDI and GDP and BoJFirst it was a pause, then we got a hike and now it looks like we are back at pause with the market having priced in another 11 bps coming at the end of the year.

5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ

<ul>
<li>It is time for the FOMC meeting this afternoon/evening depending on your location and we see a high probability of the FOMC solidifying that another hike is coming in November or December, which is not the base case for markets currently (accumulative 11bps priced in for the rest of the year by the time of writing).</li>
<li>Let’s have a look at three simple chart studies on the developments in 1) Growth, 2) Inflation, and 3) Labour since the June dot plot that will be updated later.</li>
<li>Both Services and Manufacturing have clearly surprised the UPSIDE since the June meeting and all sell-side economists have been busy revising up growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>


It is time for the FOMC meeting this afternoon/evening depending on your location and we see a high probability of the FOMC solidifying that another hike is coming in November or December, which is not the base case for markets currently (accumulative 11bps priced in for the rest of the year by the time of writing).
Let’s have a look at three simple chart studies on the developments in 1) Growth, 2) Inflation, and 3) Labour since the June dot plot that will be updated later.
Both Services and Manufacturing have clearly surprised the UPSIDE since the June meeting and all sell-side economists have been busy revising up growth forecasts.


Fed Nugget: Why the Fed Dot Plot Will Remain Hawkish

<ul><li>Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.</li><li>Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.</li><li>Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.</li></ul>

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

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Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch. The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few...

Steno Research

BoJ Risks Major Credibility Test, While Fed and ECB Send Different Signals About Peak Rates

The BoJ's credibility will be tested in 2024 while exiting NIRP and YCC due to political pressure Meanwhile, both the ECB and Fed are at or close...

DeSaque Macro Research

5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ

It’s Central Bank bonanza once again, and that of course means that we will take you through the biggest central bank meetings and give you our...

Steno Research

Fed Nugget: Why the Fed Dot Plot Will Remain Hawkish

It is time for the FOMC meeting this afternoon/evening depending on your location and we see a high probability of the FOMC solidifying that...

Steno Research

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the...

Steno Research

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