Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC: Crashed Then Rebounded to +15.1% Premium; Likely to Break Down Again</li>
<li>UMC: -0.2% Discount; Earnings Imminent; Notable Decrease in ADR Headroom</li>
<li>ASE: Rebounded to +9.2 Premium After Major Breakdown; Likely to Drop Again</li>
</ul>


TSMC: Crashed Then Rebounded to +15.1% Premium; Likely to Break Down Again
UMC: -0.2% Discount; Earnings Imminent; Notable Decrease in ADR Headroom
ASE: Rebounded to +9.2 Premium After Major Breakdown; Likely to Drop Again


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premium Trading Range Blow-Outs During Recent Sell-Off

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A TALE OF TWO SEMI INDUSTRIES: ASE's latest earnings commentary indicates that the performance gap between "leading-edge" technologies and "traditional/mature" semiconductor technologies may be widening.</li>
<li>CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO KEEP PACE IS RISING: Capacity utilization is starkly different for traditional vs. leading-edge capacity; and capital requirements to keep up in terms of advanced capacity is rising.</li>
<li>ENTRY BARRIERS RISING: We suspect that smaller players could face significant challenges in keeping up with the investments necessary for leading-edge packaging and testing capacity. ASE needs to invest heavily.</li>
</ul>


A TALE OF TWO SEMI INDUSTRIES: ASE's latest earnings commentary indicates that the performance gap between "leading-edge" technologies and "traditional/mature" semiconductor technologies may be widening.
CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO KEEP PACE IS RISING: Capacity utilization is starkly different for traditional vs. leading-edge capacity; and capital requirements to keep up in terms of advanced capacity is rising.
ENTRY BARRIERS RISING: We suspect that smaller players could face significant challenges in keeping up with the investments necessary for leading-edge packaging and testing capacity. ASE needs to invest heavily.


ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>NCKU in Taiwan achieves breakthrough in angstrom-scale semiconductor precision, potentially revolutionizing the industry.</li><li>Uncertainty surrounds impact of Trump win on green energy, with transition likely to be slower but not impossible.</li><li>Apple introduces new open-source AI models, Kyushu attracts record investments from TSMC, while SK Hynix experiences sales/profit growth. Vietnam partners with Qorvo, Cadence to train 50,000 engineers by 2030.</li></ul>

NCKU in Taiwan achieves breakthrough in angstrom-scale semiconductor precision, potentially revolutionizing the industry.Uncertainty surrounds impact of Trump win on green energy, with transition likely to be slower but not impossible.Apple introduces new open-source AI models, Kyushu attracts record investments from TSMC, while SK Hynix experiences sales/profit growth. Vietnam partners with Qorvo, Cadence to train 50,000 engineers by 2030.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Jul-2024): NCKU in Taiwan achieves semiconductor precision breakthrough.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>General products did not show an immediate recovery, but selective products have reached the bottom.    </li>
<li>The 3Q24 sales will grow in the mid to high teens QoQ in EMS, and IC-ATM sales will grow in the mid to high single digits QoQ.  </li>
<li>AI remains strong across all sectors. Despite AI SP driving the replacement cycle, other general demands still show muted recovery in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>


General products did not show an immediate recovery, but selective products have reached the bottom.    
The 3Q24 sales will grow in the mid to high teens QoQ in EMS, and IC-ATM sales will grow in the mid to high single digits QoQ.  
AI remains strong across all sectors. Despite AI SP driving the replacement cycle, other general demands still show muted recovery in 3Q24.


ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): ​Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Macro News Update: Our take from the decision draft of the CCP 3rd Plenary Session</li>
<li>1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 31% y-o-y growth (+)</li>
<li>1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei’s mid-premium Nova 13 smartphone to be delayed (+//)</li>
</ul>


Macro News Update: Our take from the decision draft of the CCP 3rd Plenary Session
1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 31% y-o-y growth (+)
1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei’s mid-premium Nova 13 smartphone to be delayed (+//)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premium Trading Range Blow-Outs During Recent Sell-Off

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Jul-2024): NCKU in Taiwan achieves semiconductor precision breakthrough.

NCKU makes breakthrough in semiconductor precision, Trump's impact on green energy uncertain, Apple unveils AI models, TSMC attracts record...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.

Patrick Liao

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US

CCP 3rd Plenary Session decision draft analyzed; parcel volume growth for HK/ZTO and Huawei's Nova 13 smartphone delay.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC and ASE Premium Trading Range Blow-Outs During Recent Sell-Off

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

​ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Jul-2024): NCKU in Taiwan achieves semiconductor precision breakthrough.

NCKU makes breakthrough in semiconductor precision, Trump's impact on green energy uncertain, Apple unveils AI models, TSMC attracts record...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): ​Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

​Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.

Patrick Liao

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US

​CCP 3rd Plenary Session decision draft analyzed; parcel volume growth for HK/ZTO and Huawei's Nova 13 smartphone delay.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.

CCP 3rd Plenary Session decision draft analyzed; parcel volume growth for HK/ZTO and Huawei's Nova 13 smartphone delay.