Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 EMS is expected to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage QoQ in 4Q24, while ATM sales are expected to grow slightly QoQ.</li>
<li>General market hasn’t recovered yet.2024 outlook still seems lukewarm. 2024 market excluding HPC and AI is indeed down YoY. Only AI and leading edge product demand is robust.</li>
<li>Expects 2025 general market demand to have better recovery, more leading edge business opportunities and higher testing sales mix to help GM go up.</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 EMS is expected to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage QoQ in 4Q24, while ATM sales are expected to grow slightly QoQ.
General market hasn’t recovered yet.2024 outlook still seems lukewarm. 2024 market excluding HPC and AI is indeed down YoY. Only AI and leading edge product demand is robust.
Expects 2025 general market demand to have better recovery, more leading edge business opportunities and higher testing sales mix to help GM go up.


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>CoWoS packaging meets global demand for advanced technology, with efficient design for integration.</li><li>Taiwan reveals breakthrough in tiny quantum computer technology, impacting the tech industry.</li><li>LGES secures multi-billion deal with Mercedes-Benz for EV batteries, boosting electric vehicle industry.</li></ul>

CoWoS packaging meets global demand for advanced technology, with efficient design for integration.Taiwan reveals breakthrough in tiny quantum computer technology, impacting the tech industry.LGES secures multi-billion deal with Mercedes-Benz for EV batteries, boosting electric vehicle industry.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Oct-2024): CoWoS packaging global capacity

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>A TALE OF TWO SEMI INDUSTRIES: ASE's latest earnings commentary indicates that the performance gap between "leading-edge" technologies and "traditional/mature" semiconductor technologies may be widening.</li>
<li>CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO KEEP PACE IS RISING: Capacity utilization is starkly different for traditional vs. leading-edge capacity; and capital requirements to keep up in terms of advanced capacity is rising.</li>
<li>ENTRY BARRIERS RISING: We suspect that smaller players could face significant challenges in keeping up with the investments necessary for leading-edge packaging and testing capacity. ASE needs to invest heavily.</li>
</ul>


A TALE OF TWO SEMI INDUSTRIES: ASE's latest earnings commentary indicates that the performance gap between "leading-edge" technologies and "traditional/mature" semiconductor technologies may be widening.
CAPITAL REQUIREMENT TO KEEP PACE IS RISING: Capacity utilization is starkly different for traditional vs. leading-edge capacity; and capital requirements to keep up in terms of advanced capacity is rising.
ENTRY BARRIERS RISING: We suspect that smaller players could face significant challenges in keeping up with the investments necessary for leading-edge packaging and testing capacity. ASE needs to invest heavily.


ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

<ul>
<li>General products did not show an immediate recovery, but selective products have reached the bottom.    </li>
<li>The 3Q24 sales will grow in the mid to high teens QoQ in EMS, and IC-ATM sales will grow in the mid to high single digits QoQ.  </li>
<li>AI remains strong across all sectors. Despite AI SP driving the replacement cycle, other general demands still show muted recovery in 3Q24.</li>
</ul>


General products did not show an immediate recovery, but selective products have reached the bottom.    
The 3Q24 sales will grow in the mid to high teens QoQ in EMS, and IC-ATM sales will grow in the mid to high single digits QoQ.  
AI remains strong across all sectors. Despite AI SP driving the replacement cycle, other general demands still show muted recovery in 3Q24.


ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): ​Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

<ul><li>ASE plans to boost sales in the second half of 2024 with cutting-edge technology and innovative solutions. Introspect CEO discusses how their GDDR7 memory test system outperforms competitors, helping customers stay ahead of the curve.</li><li>Taiwan's space dreams face hurdles from regulations and geopolitics, hindering progress. N Chandrasekaran becomes chair of Tata Electronics, signaling entry into semiconductor industry. Indian GaN startup targets global expansion in telecom and EV markets for growth.</li><li>Triton ignites Taiwan's push for satellite self-sufficiency; Apple partnership speculation with a leading EV startup generates buzz. Lam Research seeks chipmaking tool partners in India to drive innovation and collaboration. #Apple #EVstartup #newsroundup</li></ul>

ASE plans to boost sales in the second half of 2024 with cutting-edge technology and innovative solutions. Introspect CEO discusses how their GDDR7 memory test system outperforms competitors, helping customers stay ahead of the curve.Taiwan's space dreams face hurdles from regulations and geopolitics, hindering progress. N Chandrasekaran becomes chair of Tata Electronics, signaling entry into semiconductor industry. Indian GaN startup targets global expansion in telecom and EV markets for growth.Triton ignites Taiwan's push for satellite self-sufficiency; Apple partnership speculation with a leading EV startup generates buzz. Lam Research seeks chipmaking tool partners in India to drive innovation and collaboration. #Apple #EVstartup #newsroundup

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-May-2024): ASE to speed up 2H24 sales growth.

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

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ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT)

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Oct-2024): CoWoS packaging global capacity

Taiwan's technological advancements in quantum computing, electric vehicles, and AI servers present promising opportunities for growth and...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-May-2024): ASE to speed up 2H24 sales growth.

ASE boosting sales, Introspect CEO's GDDR7 memory test system, Taiwan's space dreams hindered, N Chandrasekaran chair of Tata Electronics, Indian...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

​4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Oct-2024): CoWoS packaging global capacity

Taiwan's technological advancements in quantum computing, electric vehicles, and AI servers present promising opportunities for growth and...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

ASE Color Suggests Widening Performance Gap Between Leading-Edge and Mature Semiconductor Players

​ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): ​Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

​Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-May-2024): ASE to speed up 2H24 sales growth.

ASE boosting sales, Introspect CEO's GDDR7 memory test system, Taiwan's space dreams hindered, N Chandrasekaran chair of Tata Electronics, Indian...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...

ASE's latest earnings show widening gap between leading-edge and traditional semiconductor technologies, with rising capital requirements and...

ASEH (3017.TT; ASX.US): Selective Products Have Hit Bottom While General Products Lag Behind.

Selective products have hit bottom while general products lag behind, with EMS and IC-ATM sales expected to grow in 3Q24, driven by strong AI demand.