Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q24 IC ATM sales recorded NT$162bn, up 1% QoQ, GM: 16.4%, down 0.1% QoQ. EMS sales were NT$74.9bn, down 1% QoQ mainly due to seasonality. </li>
<li>1Q25 EMS sales will decline slightly YoY, and OPM is down 0.13ppts YoY. IC-ATM sales will decline mid-single-digits QoQ and GM is down slightly more than 1% QoQ.</li>
<li>Believes it will bring upside from new US BIS policy to ban non-listed OSAT vendors (especially China vendors) to produce US-related chip, but can’t quantify at this moment.</li>
</ul>


4Q24 IC ATM sales recorded NT$162bn, up 1% QoQ, GM: 16.4%, down 0.1% QoQ. EMS sales were NT$74.9bn, down 1% QoQ mainly due to seasonality. 
1Q25 EMS sales will decline slightly YoY, and OPM is down 0.13ppts YoY. IC-ATM sales will decline mid-single-digits QoQ and GM is down slightly more than 1% QoQ.
Believes it will bring upside from new US BIS policy to ban non-listed OSAT vendors (especially China vendors) to produce US-related chip, but can’t quantify at this moment.


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): A Seasonal Decline in 1Q25, But US BIS Policy Will Help ASEH Business.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher</li>
<li>
ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short</li>
<li>
CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs</li>
</ul>



TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher

ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short

CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, Micro-Star International.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, Micro-Star International.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, MSI

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD845.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD721mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC (2330 TT).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD845.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD721mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC (2330 TT).


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): TSMC

<ul>
<li>The 4Q24 EMS is expected to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage QoQ in 4Q24, while ATM sales are expected to grow slightly QoQ.</li>
<li>General market hasn’t recovered yet.2024 outlook still seems lukewarm. 2024 market excluding HPC and AI is indeed down YoY. Only AI and leading edge product demand is robust.</li>
<li>Expects 2025 general market demand to have better recovery, more leading edge business opportunities and higher testing sales mix to help GM go up.</li>
</ul>


The 4Q24 EMS is expected to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage QoQ in 4Q24, while ATM sales are expected to grow slightly QoQ.
General market hasn’t recovered yet.2024 outlook still seems lukewarm. 2024 market excluding HPC and AI is indeed down YoY. Only AI and leading edge product demand is robust.
Expects 2025 general market demand to have better recovery, more leading edge business opportunities and higher testing sales mix to help GM go up.


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

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ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT)

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): A Seasonal Decline in 1Q25, But US BIS Policy Will Help ASEH Business.

4Q24 saw a slight increase in IC ATM sales and a decrease in EMS sales due to seasonality. 1Q25 is expected declining in both EMS and IC ATM...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, MSI

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, Micro-Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week. We estimate that weekly foreign flows to be inflows of USD721m and highlighted foreign...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...

Patrick Liao

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): A Seasonal Decline in 1Q25, But US BIS Policy Will Help ASEH Business.

​4Q24 saw a slight increase in IC ATM sales and a decrease in EMS sales due to seasonality. 1Q25 is expected declining in both EMS and IC ATM...

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, MSI

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, Micro-Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): TSMC

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week. We estimate that weekly foreign flows to be inflows of USD721m and highlighted foreign...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): The Overall 4Q24 Trend Is Slightly Downward QoQ.

​4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...

Patrick Liao

4Q24 saw a slight increase in IC ATM sales and a decrease in EMS sales due to seasonality. 1Q25 is expected declining in both EMS and IC ATM...

4Q24 EMS expected to decline, ATM sales to grow slightly. 2024 market still struggling, AI demand robust. 2025 outlook shows promise for recovery...