Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

ASE Technology Holding   / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>4Q25 Outlook: Revenue is expected to grow by 1% to 2% QoQ.  Both of GM and OPM are projected to increase by 0.70 to 1 percent QoQ.  </li>
<li>Growth continues to be driven by AI and HPC demand, with testing revenue exceeding expectations and offsetting minor shortfalls in packaging due to geopolitical uncertainties.</li>
<li>With 2025 test revenue expected to grow at roughly twice the pace of packaging revenue. Investment priorities are focused on wafer probing capacity for both AI and non-AI devices</li>
</ul>


4Q25 Outlook: Revenue is expected to grow by 1% to 2% QoQ.  Both of GM and OPM are projected to increase by 0.70 to 1 percent QoQ.  
Growth continues to be driven by AI and HPC demand, with testing revenue exceeding expectations and offsetting minor shortfalls in packaging due to geopolitical uncertainties.
With 2025 test revenue expected to grow at roughly twice the pace of packaging revenue. Investment priorities are focused on wafer probing capacity for both AI and non-AI devices


ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 19th. The aggregated holding was USD1,328.6bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD4,695mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Winbond Electronics, Asustek Computer, Delta Electronics, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Winbond Electronics, Asustek Computer, Delta Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 19th. The aggregated holding was USD1,328.6bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD4,695mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Winbond Electronics, Asustek Computer, Delta Electronics, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Winbond Electronics, Asustek Computer, Delta Electronics.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 19th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Winbond Electronics, Asustek Computer

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 19th. The aggregated short interest was USD28.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Taishin Financial, Accton Technology, Asustek Computer, Alchip Technologies, ASE Industrial, Taishin Financial, Accton Technology, Asustek Computer, Alchip Technologies, ASE Industrial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Dec 19th. The aggregated short interest was USD28.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Taishin Financial, Accton Technology, Asustek Computer, Alchip Technologies, ASE Industrial, Taishin Financial, Accton Technology, Asustek Computer, Alchip Technologies, ASE Industrial.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 19th): Taishin Financial, Accton Technology, Asustek Computer

<ul>
<li>3Q25 guidance (Assuming US$1 = NT$29.2.): Consolidated US$ revenue: +12-14% QoQ; NT$ revenue: +6-8% QoQ; Gross margin: -1 to -1.2ppts QoQ; OPM: -0.1 to -0.3ppts QoQ.</li>
<li>Still keep US$1bn advanced packaging guidance despite AI boom (TSMC revised up).</li>
<li>Long-Term success definition for ASE: Transition from OSAT model to foundry-aligned scale.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 guidance (Assuming US$1 = NT$29.2.): Consolidated US$ revenue: +12-14% QoQ; NT$ revenue: +6-8% QoQ; Gross margin: -1 to -1.2ppts QoQ; OPM: -0.1 to -0.3ppts QoQ.
Still keep US$1bn advanced packaging guidance despite AI boom (TSMC revised up).
Long-Term success definition for ASE: Transition from OSAT model to foundry-aligned scale.


ASEH (3711.TT): FX Impact; AI Gains Attention; 3Q25 Grows, but GM and OPM Decline QoQ.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
ASE slightly missed 1Q25 profit expectations; operating margin slipped slightly due to seasonal ATM softness and higher opex from LEAP and test investments.</li>
<li>
LEAP advanced packaging and AI test continue to scale; but still make up only ~6% of revenue; ASE's exposure to vulnerable mature/legacy chip end-applications remains too high.</li>
<li>
We rate ASE Neutral, vulnerable to global slowdown; citing macro opacity, tariff-related pull-ins, and a non-cheap valuation relative to 2H25 growth uncertainty and risks of a market de-rating.</li>
</ul>



ASE slightly missed 1Q25 profit expectations; operating margin slipped slightly due to seasonal ATM softness and higher opex from LEAP and test investments.

LEAP advanced packaging and AI test continue to scale; but still make up only ~6% of revenue; ASE's exposure to vulnerable mature/legacy chip end-applications remains too high.

We rate ASE Neutral, vulnerable to global slowdown; citing macro opacity, tariff-related pull-ins, and a non-cheap valuation relative to 2H25 growth uncertainty and risks of a market de-rating.


ASE Technology: Demand Pull-Ins and Tariff Fears Create an Uneven Outlook for Backend Services

Taiwan

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

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ASE Technology Holding (3711 TT)

ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 19th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Winbond Electronics, Asustek Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 19th): Taishin Financial, Accton Technology, Asustek Computer

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Taishin Financial (2887 TT), Accton Technology...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASEH (3711.TT): FX Impact; AI Gains Attention; 3Q25 Grows, but GM and OPM Decline QoQ.

ASEH expects revenue growth and margin decline in Q3, maintains advanced packaging guidance despite AI growth. ASEH aims for foundry-aligned scale...

Patrick Liao

ASE Technology: Demand Pull-Ins and Tariff Fears Create an Uneven Outlook for Backend Services

We rate ASE Neutral due to global slowdown risks, non-cheap valuation, and insufficient near-term exposure to AI/advanced packaging drivers.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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ASEH (3711.TT; ASX.US): 3Q25 ATM Record High; 4Q25 Modest Growth; 2025 ATM Revenue +20% YoY (USD)

​4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Dec 19th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Winbond Electronics, Asustek Computer

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC (2330 TT), Quanta Computer (2382 TT),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Dec 19th): Taishin Financial, Accton Technology, Asustek Computer

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Taishin Financial (2887 TT), Accton Technology...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASEH (3711.TT): FX Impact; AI Gains Attention; 3Q25 Grows, but GM and OPM Decline QoQ.

ASEH expects revenue growth and margin decline in Q3, maintains advanced packaging guidance despite AI growth. ASEH aims for foundry-aligned scale...

Patrick Liao

ASE Technology: Demand Pull-Ins and Tariff Fears Create an Uneven Outlook for Backend Services

We rate ASE Neutral due to global slowdown risks, non-cheap valuation, and insufficient near-term exposure to AI/advanced packaging drivers.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

4Q25 revenue to grow by 1-2% QoQ, driven by AI and HPC demand. Testing revenue exceeds expectations, offsetting packaging shortfalls. Investment...