Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 Sales: NT$123.5-132.4 billion, down 3% to up 4% QoQ, up 12-24% YoY. 4Q24 is expected to be a slower quarter based on current expectations.</li>
<li>Advanced 3nm technology can support SP, tablets, and other end devices. AI-powered functions like ARM-based CPU or EV will bear fruit in 2025.</li>
<li>The GPU has partnered with NVDA. Auto chips partnered with NVDA will be shipped out later in 2025. They will power MTK’s CPU and ISP in conjunction with NVDA’s GPU.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 Sales: NT$123.5-132.4 billion, down 3% to up 4% QoQ, up 12-24% YoY. 4Q24 is expected to be a slower quarter based on current expectations.
Advanced 3nm technology can support SP, tablets, and other end devices. AI-powered functions like ARM-based CPU or EV will bear fruit in 2025.
The GPU has partnered with NVDA. Auto chips partnered with NVDA will be shipped out later in 2025. They will power MTK’s CPU and ISP in conjunction with NVDA’s GPU.


MediaTek (2454.TT): There Appears to Be No Bright Spot in 2H24F.

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 guidance: Shipment up mid-single digits QoQ; ASP: Remains firm in USD; GM: around mid-30%. (Consensuses were high single digits.)</li>
<li>Has provided a 22nm HV solution for high-end OLED DDI to high-end SP, and expects to reach high-volume production in 2025.  </li>
<li>Cooperation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> is progressing well, targeting MP for 14nm in 2027.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 guidance: Shipment up mid-single digits QoQ; ASP: Remains firm in USD; GM: around mid-30%. (Consensuses were high single digits.)
Has provided a 22nm HV solution for high-end OLED DDI to high-end SP, and expects to reach high-volume production in 2025.  
Cooperation with Intel Corp (INTC US) is progressing well, targeting MP for 14nm in 2027.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>3Q24 guidance: Shipment: up 9-11% due to higher customer demand. ASP: down 0-2% QoQ. GM: 28-30%, up 3ppts QoQ.</li>
<li>Pricing hit bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 returning to 70-80%.</li>
<li>Effective tax rate for 2H24 is expected to be 20%.</li>
</ul>


3Q24 guidance: Shipment: up 9-11% due to higher customer demand. ASP: down 0-2% QoQ. GM: 28-30%, up 3ppts QoQ.
Pricing hit bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 returning to 70-80%.
Effective tax rate for 2H24 is expected to be 20%.


Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>LG Innotek sees record 2Q24 results from iPhone 15 sales, while Tesla and Nvidia vie for top spot in autonomous driving tech.</li><li>US bans Chinese EVs, EU examines high taxes, prompting potential semiconductor strategy changes in South Korea and Taiwan post-US election.</li><li>Amkor receives CHIPS Act incentives, Huawei sues MediaTek in China as YMTC anticipates chip demand, India's iVP Semi targets local market. Taiwan diversifies workforce with ASEAN talent.</li></ul>

LG Innotek sees record 2Q24 results from iPhone 15 sales, while Tesla and Nvidia vie for top spot in autonomous driving tech.US bans Chinese EVs, EU examines high taxes, prompting potential semiconductor strategy changes in South Korea and Taiwan post-US election.Amkor receives CHIPS Act incentives, Huawei sues MediaTek in China as YMTC anticipates chip demand, India's iVP Semi targets local market. Taiwan diversifies workforce with ASEAN talent.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Jul-2024): LG Innotek's record 2Q24 driven by iPhone 15 boom.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD924.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,653mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD924.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,653mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

MediaTek (2454.TT): There Appears to Be No Bright Spot in 2H24F.

MTK's 3Q24 sales range from NT$123.5-132.4bn, -3%~+4% QoQ, with a 12-24% YoY increase. Advanced 3nm technology will support AI-powered functions...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

Overall, sales are lower than consensuses in 3Q24. UMC plans to reach high-volume production for 22nm HV solution by 2025 and is progressing well...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Jul-2024): LG Innotek's record 2Q24 driven by iPhone 15 boom.

LG Innotek's record results driven by iPhone 15 sales, Tesla and Nvidia battle for autonomous driving, US bans Chinese EVs, EU cautious on taxes,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MediaTek (2454.TT): There Appears to Be No Bright Spot in 2H24F.

​MTK's 3Q24 sales range from NT$123.5-132.4bn, -3%~+4% QoQ, with a 12-24% YoY increase. Advanced 3nm technology will support AI-powered functions...

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 3Q24 Sales Were Slightly Below Consensuses

Overall, sales are lower than consensuses in 3Q24. UMC plans to reach high-volume production for 22nm HV solution by 2025 and is progressing well...

Patrick Liao

Vanguard (5347.TT): Pricing Hit Bottom in 2Q24. Anticipates UTR in 2025 Returning to 70-80%.

​3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Jul-2024): LG Innotek's record 2Q24 driven by iPhone 15 boom.

LG Innotek's record results driven by iPhone 15 sales, Tesla and Nvidia battle for autonomous driving, US bans Chinese EVs, EU cautious on taxes,...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 26th): Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE, Mediatek

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Gigabyte Tech, TSMC, Quanta Computer, ASE,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MTK's 3Q24 sales range from NT$123.5-132.4bn, -3%~+4% QoQ, with a 12-24% YoY increase. Advanced 3nm technology will support AI-powered functions...

3Q24 guidance shows increased shipments due to higher demand GM expected to rise 3ppts QoQ. Anticipates pricing to improve in 2025. Effective tax...