Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>
Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.
</li>
<li>
TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.
</li>
<li>
ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!

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</ul>



Aehr had a messy print, with the core business actually weaker than expected as they incorporated their recent acquisition. It’s hard to stay bearish, as they have a lot of potential product launches coming.


TSMC beat gross margins despite everything because of higher utilization. The logic cycle is starting to kick off in earnest. I believe WFE Capex will be much higher next year.


ASML talked up high-NA DRAM insertion on 25/26. Only Samsung could do it. Good luck, Samsung!




Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, the coming week  to see two more listing, with both likely to do well.</li>
<li>On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows, with India, Taiwan and Australia joining in.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, the coming week  to see two more listing, with both likely to do well.
On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows, with India, Taiwan and Australia joining in.


ECM Weekly (22nd July 2024) - Kokusai, Honda, ASICS, ZIP, Invincible, Hyundai, Premier, Timee, Sanil

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 19th which has an aggregated holding worth USD965.9bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,489mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Jul 19th which has an aggregated holding worth USD965.9bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,489mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 19th): Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector</li>
<li>Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies</li>
<li>We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China &amp; Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House... Strong TSMC &amp; ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector
Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  -- US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies
We See TSMC's Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

<ul>
<li>ASML's results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.</li>
<li>Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients' equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.</li>
<li>New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML's latest data, with no major signs of softness.</li>
</ul>


ASML's results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.
Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients' equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.
New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML's latest data, with no major signs of softness.


ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. manufactures integrated circuits based on its proprietary designs.  The Company offers a comprehensive set of integrated circuit fabrication processes to manufacture CMOS logic, mixed-mode, volatile and non-volatile memory and BiCMOS chips.  Taiwan Semiconductor is an affiliate of Philips Electronics N.V.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

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Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

ECM Weekly (22nd July 2024) - Kokusai, Honda, ASICS, ZIP, Invincible, Hyundai, Premier, Timee, Sanil

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 19th): Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Mediatek,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Earnings: TSMC, AEHR, ASML, VAT Group, Export Restrictions

The first week of earnings lends us confirmation bias, and additional fears of export restrictions. Let’s start with the actual earnings order,...

Fabricated Knowledge

ECM Weekly (22nd July 2024) - Kokusai, Honda, ASICS, ZIP, Invincible, Hyundai, Premier, Timee, Sanil

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 19th): Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Mediatek, Gigabyte Tech

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Wiwynn, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Mediatek,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

​Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

​We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan stocks dropped last week as potential new US tech restrictions for China loom, despite strong TSMC and ASML results. Apple ramping up...

We analyze ASML's results for signs of potential industry softness or pausing of demand. Overall, ASML's data depicts an industry experiencing...