Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q15 Smartphone units up 1.5-3% YoY but given accelerated imports to US and Chinese consumer subsidies, end-demand was probably flat YoY. TSMC 1Q25 revenues suggest that Smartphone chips declined YoY.</li>
<li>We should expect a correction in 2H25 and overall flat 2025 YoY.</li>
<li>The only positive is that chips are getting bigger (AI cores) and more expensive (3nm) and hence positive to Mediatek and Qualcomm, but not to phone Brands Apple included.</li>
</ul>


1Q15 Smartphone units up 1.5-3% YoY but given accelerated imports to US and Chinese consumer subsidies, end-demand was probably flat YoY. TSMC 1Q25 revenues suggest that Smartphone chips declined YoY.
We should expect a correction in 2H25 and overall flat 2025 YoY.
The only positive is that chips are getting bigger (AI cores) and more expensive (3nm) and hence positive to Mediatek and Qualcomm, but not to phone Brands Apple included.


Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>The Stakes in the 6G Race: 100x Data Speeds &amp; AI-Driven Networks</li>
<li>Qualcom's Strategy vs. Mediatek's Gameplan to Win the 6G Battle -- Takeaways from MWC 2025 in Barcelona</li>
<li>Investment Takeaways: MediaTek vs. Qualcomm -- Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek but Qualcomm Could Offer Near-Term Relative Value Play</li>
</ul>


The Stakes in the 6G Race: 100x Data Speeds &amp; AI-Driven Networks
Qualcom's Strategy vs. Mediatek's Gameplan to Win the 6G Battle -- Takeaways from MWC 2025 in Barcelona
Investment Takeaways: MediaTek vs. Qualcomm -- Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek but Qualcomm Could Offer Near-Term Relative Value Play


MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy

<ul>
<li>Smartphone revenues increased by 31% in 2024 and will increase by 15-20% in 2025 in my view: small volume growth (5%), ASP increase (AI in chips), share gains in premium.  </li>
<li>MTK multiple bets in Automotive, AI, ARM CPU are starting to pay off. Nvidia GB100 revenues mid-25, AI Accelerator revenue start mid-26, Nvidia Auto revenue in 2H26 – my estimates.</li>
<li>Consensus forecasts revenues increasing +35% from 2024 to 2026, Net Income +30%. That should be the low-end of the range. The stock is trading at 21.1x 2025 EPS, 17.6x 2026.</li>
</ul>


Smartphone revenues increased by 31% in 2024 and will increase by 15-20% in 2025 in my view: small volume growth (5%), ASP increase (AI in chips), share gains in premium.  
MTK multiple bets in Automotive, AI, ARM CPU are starting to pay off. Nvidia GB100 revenues mid-25, AI Accelerator revenue start mid-26, Nvidia Auto revenue in 2H26 – my estimates.
Consensus forecasts revenues increasing +35% from 2024 to 2026, Net Income +30%. That should be the low-end of the range. The stock is trading at 21.1x 2025 EPS, 17.6x 2026.


Mediatek: A Lot of Good Things Ahead but the Stock Is a Bit Expensive

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses. </li>
<li>Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.</li>
<li>GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon's effect on resource allocation. </li>
</ul>


1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses. 
Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.
GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon's effect on resource allocation. 


MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Top Chinese cloud platforms are supporting DeepSeek as AI changes the landscape of cloud intelligence.</li><li>Meta and Google are pushing forward with smart glasses development, overcoming obstacles in the Asian supply chain.</li><li>SiPh progress is exceeding TSMC's expectations, heating up the optical communication CPO market earlier than anticipated.</li></ul>

Top Chinese cloud platforms are supporting DeepSeek as AI changes the landscape of cloud intelligence.Meta and Google are pushing forward with smart glasses development, overcoming obstacles in the Asian supply chain.SiPh progress is exceeding TSMC's expectations, heating up the optical communication CPO market earlier than anticipated.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...

Nicolas Baratte

MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy

MWC 2025 in Barcelona earlier this week showed the race for 6G dominance heating up as Qualcomm and MediaTek strategize for faster data speeds and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek: A Lot of Good Things Ahead but the Stock Is a Bit Expensive

Smartphone revenues to rise in 2025, MTK's bets in Automotive and AI paying off, consensus forecasts show strong growth ahead.

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.

MediaTek's 1Q25 outlook shows growth in revenue and smartphone sales, driven by successful product launches and demand in China. GAI innovation...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

Top Chinese cloud platforms support DeepSeek AI as it shapes cloud intelligence landscape, while Meta and Google push smart glasses forward despite...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Smartphone Market Grew 2% in 1Q25 with 2 Positives Boosters: Apple Restocking in US, China Subsidies

​1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...

Nicolas Baratte

MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy

​MWC 2025 in Barcelona earlier this week showed the race for 6G dominance heating up as Qualcomm and MediaTek strategize for faster data speeds and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek: A Lot of Good Things Ahead but the Stock Is a Bit Expensive

​Smartphone revenues to rise in 2025, MTK's bets in Automotive and AI paying off, consensus forecasts show strong growth ahead.

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek (2454.TT): 1Q25 Guidance Beats Consensus; Providing N2 Solution Starting from 2026.

​MediaTek's 1Q25 outlook shows growth in revenue and smartphone sales, driven by successful product launches and demand in China. GAI innovation...

Patrick Liao

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Feb-2025): Chinese cloud giants support DeepSeek as AI revolutionizes cloud.

Top Chinese cloud platforms support DeepSeek AI as it shapes cloud intelligence landscape, while Meta and Google push smart glasses forward despite...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

1Q15 slight increase in smartphone units, but end-demand likely remained flat. Expect a correction in 2H25 with overall flat 2025 YoY. Positives...

MWC 2025 in Barcelona earlier this week showed the race for 6G dominance heating up as Qualcomm and MediaTek strategize for faster data speeds and...

Smartphone revenues to rise in 2025, MTK's bets in Automotive and AI paying off, consensus forecasts show strong growth ahead.

MediaTek's 1Q25 outlook shows growth in revenue and smartphone sales, driven by successful product launches and demand in China. GAI innovation...