Chief Economist, Aletheia Capital

Dr. Jim Walker

Chief Economist

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p style="text-align: justify;">In an earlier Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/malaysia-and-thailand-divergence" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Malaysia and Thailand Divergence</strong></a>, 30 Sep, we drew attention to diverging trends in two of Southeast Asia’s more mature economies, Malaysia and Thailand. At that time second quarter headline GDP numbers showed Malaysia on a rising trend and Thailand on a declining trend. But when investment was examined Thailand was still growing while Malaysia was contracting. Have the third quarter releases changed the picture any? Yes and no...</p>

In an earlier Insight, Malaysia and Thailand Divergence, 30 Sep, we drew attention to diverging trends in two of Southeast Asia’s more mature economies, Malaysia and Thailand. At that time second quarter headline GDP numbers showed Malaysia on a rising trend and Thailand on a declining trend. But when investment was examined Thailand was still growing while Malaysia was contracting. Have the third quarter releases changed the picture any? Yes and no...

Double Divergence: Malaysia and Thailand Mixed Signals

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<div>Our cycle work suggests equity weakness into December 20th and raising the stakes on Tariffs, increases risk of a downside overshoot as does a delayed China/US deal. We still have the positive backdrop of QE, easier monetary policy to carry a rally into Q1. Our focus is on levels to cover hedge shorts and add to long exposure.</div><div></div><div>The following are key pivot support levels that if broken would induce a harder decline. Focus is on USD/JPY, Nikkei 22,400, WTI wedge support, gold wedge resistance, DJI 27,300 old high pivot, SPX 3,020 and Eurostoxx RSI and MACD support breaks.</div><div></div><div>SPX base case is to close shorts from 3,150 and reverse to long near 3,045 with new highs with our finger on these risk pivot points that would alter levels.</div>

Our cycle work suggests equity weakness into December 20th and raising the stakes on Tariffs, increases risk of a downside overshoot as does a delayed China/US deal. We still have the positive backdrop of QE, easier monetary policy to carry a rally into Q1. Our focus is on levels to cover hedge shorts and add to long exposure.The following are key pivot support levels that if broken would induce a harder decline. Focus is on USD/JPY, Nikkei 22,400, WTI wedge support, gold wedge resistance, DJI 27,300 old high pivot, SPX 3,020 and Eurostoxx RSI and MACD support breaks.SPX base case is to close shorts from 3,150 and reverse to long near 3,045 with new highs with our finger on these risk pivot points that would alter levels.

Trigger Levels for a Harder December Pullback

<p><span lang="EN-GB">So far this year the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange is down 6.3% while the Bangkok SET is up 4.7%. Malaysia has a majority government elected in a landslide in early 2018. Thailand is still struggling to put together a ruling coalition five months after the first general election in six years (although it does now at least have a prime minister). So, it must be the economy then?</span></p>

So far this year the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange is down 6.3% while the Bangkok SET is up 4.7%. Malaysia has a majority government elected in a landslide in early 2018. Thailand is still struggling to put together a ruling coalition five months after the first general election in six years (although it does now at least have a prime minister). So, it must be the economy then?

<p style="text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thb" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22830:1">THB (USDTHB CURNCY)</a> below 31 is flagging valuation concerns with high conviction chart bottoming signals. The macro cycle is due to bottom near the 30.50 level with risk toward the lower 30 area as the risk limit area. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Micro and macro cycle bull divergence is maturing in the daily and weekly charts and forms when the trend is near a terminal point stemming from diminishing USD sell volumes and momentum (THB tends to spike into a low however) as the market finds itself very long the THB.</p><p style="text-align: left;">USD/THB macro cycle is etching out a cycle low at a time when intervention risk is rising to stem the Baht's strength.</p><p style="text-align: left;">A USD cycle low will provide headwinds for the SET rally and front run an equity peak. Exports plays on our radar.</p>

THB (USDTHB CURNCY) below 31 is flagging valuation concerns with high conviction chart bottoming signals. The macro cycle is due to bottom near the 30.50 level with risk toward the lower 30 area as the risk limit area. Micro and macro cycle bull divergence is maturing in the daily and weekly charts and forms when the trend is near a terminal point stemming from diminishing USD sell volumes and momentum (THB tends to spike into a low however) as the market finds itself very long the THB.USD/THB macro cycle is etching out a cycle low at a time when intervention risk is rising to stem the Baht's strength.A USD cycle low will provide headwinds for the SET rally and front run an equity peak. Exports plays on our radar.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<p>While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and actionable individual stock recommendations, including opportunities in Brazil, Russia, Norway, Thailand and India.</p>

While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and actionable individual stock recommendations, including opportunities in Brazil, Russia, Norway, Thailand and India.

EM Strategy: Brazil Breaking Out, EM Energy Remains Attractive

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

Double Divergence: Malaysia and Thailand Mixed Signals

In an earlier Insight, Malaysia and Thailand Divergence, 30 Sep, we drew attention to diverging trends in two of Southeast Asia’s more mature...

Dr. Jim Walker

Trigger Levels for a Harder December Pullback

Our cycle work suggests equity weakness into December 20th and raising the stakes on Tariffs, increases risk of a downside overshoot as does a...

Thomas Schroeder

Malaysia and Thailand Divergence

So far this year the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange is down 6.3% while the Bangkok SET is up 4.7%. Malaysia has a majority government elected in a...

Dr. Jim Walker

USD/Thai Baht Macro Cycle Low

THB (USDTHB CURNCY) below 31 is flagging valuation concerns with high conviction chart bottoming signals. The macro cycle is due to bottom near the...

Thomas Schroeder

EM Strategy: Brazil Breaking Out, EM Energy Remains Attractive

While the MSCI EM index remains in a well-defined downtrend, and we continue to recommend selectivity, we highlight several investable themes and...

Vermilion Research