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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The VN-Index (VNI) declined 1.8% in October: The VNI started October with four consecutive declining sessions (VNI: -1.7% from October 1st to 7th) due to high profit taking pressure as the VNI approached the 1,300-point level.</li><li>However, the VNI then recovered (VNI: +1.3% from October 7th to 17th) as sentiment improved on upbeat macro data (Vietnam posted +6.8% YoY GDP growth in 9M 2024) and rallies in US equities (S&amp;P500: +2.6%; Nasdaq: +2.5%; DJI: +3.1%) in the same period.</li><li>However, upward momentum was not sustained and the VNI declined towards the end of the month (VNI: -1.7% from October 17th to 31st) due to several reasons, including: (1) profit-taking pressure returned; (2) the SBV resumed T-bill issuance (the SBV net withdrew VND52.1tn (USD2.1bn) from October 18th to November 1st from the banking system); and (3) foreign investors net sold around USD358.3mn on HSX in the second half of October. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The VN-Index (VNI) declined 1.8% in October: The VNI started October with four consecutive declining sessions (VNI: -1.7% from October 1st to 7th) due to high profit taking pressure as the VNI approached the 1,300-point level.However, the VNI then recovered (VNI: +1.3% from October 7th to 17th) as sentiment improved on upbeat macro data (Vietnam posted +6.8% YoY GDP growth in 9M 2024) and rallies in US equities (S&amp;P500: +2.6%; Nasdaq: +2.5%; DJI: +3.1%) in the same period.However, upward momentum was not sustained and the VNI declined towards the end of the month (VNI: -1.7% from October 17th to 31st) due to several reasons, including: (1) profit-taking pressure returned; (2) the SBV resumed T-bill issuance (the SBV net withdrew VND52.1tn (USD2.1bn) from October 18th to November 1st from the banking system); and (3) foreign investors net sold around USD358.3mn on HSX in the second half of October. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Recap October 2024 - VN-Index Declines After Three Months of Gains

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

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Krungthai XSpring

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.</li><li>Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.</li><li>Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades</li></ul>

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.Highlights impacting the market include: i) the 3Q24E earnings results (US and Thai banks); ii) US election on November 5 (Harris or Trump?); iii) results of the Bank of Thailand’s MPC meeting (first signal of a rate cut?), and iv) the Pheu Thai government gradually rolling out additional economic stimulus measures.Risks include geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial market volatility leading up to the US election, and profit taking by foreign investors after the support from the Vayupak Fund fades

<ul><li>KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.</li><li>Key factors. to watch include: i) The outcomes of the ECB, FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, which could positively impact equity markets if there are signals of gradual easing</li><li>ii) The potential escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which could negatively affect markets (risk-off sentiment) if it intensifies into a broader war involving Israel/US and Iran/Russia.</li><li>iii) The US presidential election, with attention on polling trends following the Trump-Harris debate; a shift toward a Republican sweep in both houses could negatively affect markets. </li></ul>

KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.Key factors. to watch include: i) The outcomes of the ECB, FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, which could positively impact equity markets if there are signals of gradual easingii) The potential escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, which could negatively affect markets (risk-off sentiment) if it intensifies into a broader war involving Israel/US and Iran/Russia.iii) The US presidential election, with attention on polling trends following the Trump-Harris debate; a shift toward a Republican sweep in both houses could negatively affect markets. 

<ul><li>The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).</li><li>However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.</li><li>As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The VN-Index (VNI) increased 2.6% in August. At the beginning of the month (August 1st to 5th), the VNI declined 5.1% as selling pressure occurred across all sectors in line with the negative performance of the global stock market in the same period (S&amp;P500: -4.8%; Nasdaq: -5.8%; DJI: -4.1%; Nikkei 225: -17.5%).However, the VNI quickly recovered towards the end of August (+8.1%) due to several factors including: (1) global equity markets rallied with S&amp;P500: +8.9%; Nasdaq: +9.3%; DJI: +7.4%; Nikkei 225: +22.9%, (2) higher expectations about the removal of the "prefunding" bottleneck, which is a key criterion for the market upgrade by FTSE, (3) the appreciation of the VND supported market sentiment (the VND appreciated 1.6% against the USD in August), and (4) real estate stocks increased 4.5% in August as three amended laws (Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023, and the Real Estate Business Law 2023) took effect from August 1, 2024.As of August 30, the VNI closed at 1,283.9 (+2.6% MoM).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

<ul>
<li>KTX anticipates the SET Index to exhibit fluctuations, with the support at 1,320/1,300 points and the resistance at 1,375/1,395 points. Key highlights include: i) The results of the US FOMC meeting on June 12, which could have a negative impact on global stock markets if the new dot plot signals a hawkish stance (with a reduction in estimated interest rate cuts from three to just one previously).</li>
<li>ii) The global economic recovery faces potential delays due to protectionist measures, such as increased import tariffs between China and Western countries aimed at safeguarding domestic businesses.</li>
<li>On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated throughout the year. </li>
</ul>


KTX anticipates the SET Index to exhibit fluctuations, with the support at 1,320/1,300 points and the resistance at 1,375/1,395 points. Key highlights include: i) The results of the US FOMC meeting on June 12, which could have a negative impact on global stock markets if the new dot plot signals a hawkish stance (with a reduction in estimated interest rate cuts from three to just one previously).
ii) The global economic recovery faces potential delays due to protectionist measures, such as increased import tariffs between China and Western countries aimed at safeguarding domestic businesses.
On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated throughout the year. 


Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

Market Recap October 2024 - VN-Index Declines After Three Months of Gains

The VN-Index (VNI) declined 1.8% in October: The VNI started October with four consecutive declining sessions (VNI: -1.7% from October 1st to 7th)...

Vietcap

Monthly Report: October 2024

KTX expects the index to move in a sideways up pattern, with resistance at 1,472/1,494 points and support at 1,423/1,405 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Monthly Report: September 2024

KTX expects the index to move upward, with intermittent contractions, with the resistance at 1,390/1,410 points and the support at 1,335/1,325 points.

Krungthai XSpring

Market Recap August 2024 - VN-Index extends gains in August

Since the beginning of the year to end-August, the VNI increased 13.6%, outperforming regional markets such as the Philippines’ PCOMP (+6.9%),...

Vietcap

Monthly Report: June 2024

On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated...

Krungthai XSpring