Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>KTX anticipates the SET Index to exhibit fluctuations, with the support at 1,320/1,300 points and the resistance at 1,375/1,395 points. Key highlights include: i) The results of the US FOMC meeting on June 12, which could have a negative impact on global stock markets if the new dot plot signals a hawkish stance (with a reduction in estimated interest rate cuts from three to just one previously).</li>
<li>ii) The global economic recovery faces potential delays due to protectionist measures, such as increased import tariffs between China and Western countries aimed at safeguarding domestic businesses.</li>
<li>On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated throughout the year. </li>
</ul>


KTX anticipates the SET Index to exhibit fluctuations, with the support at 1,320/1,300 points and the resistance at 1,375/1,395 points. Key highlights include: i) The results of the US FOMC meeting on June 12, which could have a negative impact on global stock markets if the new dot plot signals a hawkish stance (with a reduction in estimated interest rate cuts from three to just one previously).
ii) The global economic recovery faces potential delays due to protectionist measures, such as increased import tariffs between China and Western countries aimed at safeguarding domestic businesses.
On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated throughout the year. 


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend within the range of 1,300-1,410 points.</li><li>In the short term, it is still in the rebound range with the major resistance at 1,357/1,370/1,384 points (1/3 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,411.46-1,330.24 points observed from April 10-19). </li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349 points.Overall, the index is moving in a downtrend within the range of 1,300-1,410 points.In the short term, it is still in the rebound range with the major resistance at 1,357/1,370/1,384 points (1/3 and 2/3 of the Fibonacci range of 1,411.46-1,330.24 points observed from April 10-19). 

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is expected to move in a downtrend in the range of 1,300-1,410 points.</li><li>Any rebound in the index is seen as a technical bounce back, likely due to the oversold condition as demonstrated by the oscillator indicator, with the short-term resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.Overall, the index is expected to move in a downtrend in the range of 1,300-1,410 points.Any rebound in the index is seen as a technical bounce back, likely due to the oversold condition as demonstrated by the oscillator indicator, with the short-term resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.

<ul><li>US 1Q24 earnings results: Keep a close watch on the earnings of Verizon Communications, Truist Financial, Zions, Bancorp, etc.</li><li>TH 1Q24 earnings results: Wait for the earnings of KBANK (the consensus estimates net profit growth at +3.6% YoY and +18.6% QoQ to Bt11,130mn).</li><li>This week, also keep a close watch on the earnings of SCGP, SCC, PTTEP and DELTA, respectively.</li></ul>

US 1Q24 earnings results: Keep a close watch on the earnings of Verizon Communications, Truist Financial, Zions, Bancorp, etc.TH 1Q24 earnings results: Wait for the earnings of KBANK (the consensus estimates net profit growth at +3.6% YoY and +18.6% QoQ to Bt11,130mn).This week, also keep a close watch on the earnings of SCGP, SCC, PTTEP and DELTA, respectively.

KTX Zoom - APRIL 22, 2024: Weekly Strategy

<ul><li>We have observed signs indicating a return to an uptrend in the Thai 10Y bond yield, rising to 2.66% (+16 bps MTD).</li><li>Meanwhile, the 2Y bond yield increased more modestly to 2.24% (+9 bps MTD), widening the spread between the 2Y and 10Y bond yields by 7 bps MTD to 0.42%.</li><li>This suggests a bear steepening yield curve pattern, typically followed by a narrowing of the earnings yield gap (EYG), as shown in Figure 1. On April 10, 2024, the SET's EYG decreased by 27 bps MTD to 4.17% (Figure 2). </li></ul>

We have observed signs indicating a return to an uptrend in the Thai 10Y bond yield, rising to 2.66% (+16 bps MTD).Meanwhile, the 2Y bond yield increased more modestly to 2.24% (+9 bps MTD), widening the spread between the 2Y and 10Y bond yields by 7 bps MTD to 0.42%.This suggests a bear steepening yield curve pattern, typically followed by a narrowing of the earnings yield gap (EYG), as shown in Figure 1. On April 10, 2024, the SET's EYG decreased by 27 bps MTD to 4.17% (Figure 2). 

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

Monthly Report: June 2024

On a positive note, the ECB is expected to ease monetary policy for the first time at the June 6 meeting, with continued easing anticipated...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - APRIL 26, 2024

echnically, the SET Index is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 1,365/1,373 points (10-day EMA/25-day EMA) and the support at 1,353/1,349...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - APRIL 23, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Zoom - APRIL 22, 2024: Weekly Strategy

TH 1Q24 earnings results: Wait for the earnings of KBANK (the consensus estimates net profit growth at +3.6% YoY and +18.6% QoQ to Bt11,130mn).

Krungthai XSpring

Ktx Ahead - KTX AHEAD

We have observed signs indicating a return to an uptrend in the Thai 10Y bond yield, rising to 2.66% (+16 bps MTD). Meanwhile, the 2Y bond yield...

Krungthai XSpring