Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

US equities are in a fade cycle given the S&amp;P crack of 2,365 micro support. Short protection focused in NDX and IWM. Trimmed transport long. US financials failed to get a lift on the recent spike in yield, underscoring the March corrective cycle. Buy meaningful March weakness.Advance/decline line break of pattern support concurs with further weakness into the slated late March bottoming cycle. Our cycle turn call for a turn up in yields, down in gold and oil panned out but the USD remains mixed.T-Note is on course for a yield spike to 2.74% if not the 3% macro inflection barrier. Odds for a Fed hike are in sync with our bullish yield view. Yields’ backing off gives ammunition for a spike higher.DXY 101.80 resolution needed (Euro 1.05). A fed rate hike needs to spur the dollar higher or we will alter our Euro view. EM FX showing USD basing/strength and the dollar overall is in line.Gold and WTI shorts to be covered and re set on an uptick.EEM biased to slide below 37. Short pair with the S&amp;P hinges on USD strength. Trade is to buy a March dip below 37 for a rise to 42. Short Turkey average at 89,200. Short Brazil at 70,000+.Long Japan – Fresh long from 18,950 with 18,900 pivot support. Long banks - must break above 200. USD/JPY above 114.60 targets 116/118.50.Asia shorts – SET 50 short (-5%). 9,589 Taiwan short covered at flat. STI 3,135 short. Look to add to Korea short at 275. Probing to short Nifty at 9,050.Asia longs – Long Nifty from 7,752 (will add on pullback). Long A share futures from 10,050 (10,200 support). H shares from 9,200. Long Ping An, BABA, CCB and ICBC. Australian banks from 6,658. Long KEPCO at 42.2k.Cycles – Sequence calls for correction into March 27th for expected cycle low with Europe performing.FOMC game plan – Yield spike and fade with odds that we price in a 2nd rate hike. USD rise showing fatigue vs Euro but EM FX/equities will succumb to pressure. Alert to a sell the fact fade.

US equities are in a fade cycle given the S&amp;P crack of 2,365 micro support. Short protection focused in NDX and IWM. Trimmed transport long. US financials failed to get a lift on the recent spike in yield, underscoring the March corrective cycle. Buy meaningful March weakness.Advance/decline line break of pattern support concurs with further weakness into the slated late March bottoming cycle. Our cycle turn call for a turn up in yields, down in gold and oil panned out but the USD remains mixed.T-Note is on course for a yield spike to 2.74% if not the 3% macro inflection barrier. Odds for a Fed hike are in sync with our bullish yield view. Yields’ backing off gives ammunition for a spike higher.DXY 101.80 resolution needed (Euro 1.05). A fed rate hike needs to spur the dollar higher or we will alter our Euro view. EM FX showing USD basing/strength and the dollar overall is in line.Gold and WTI shorts to be covered and re set on an uptick.EEM biased to slide below 37. Short pair with the S&amp;P hinges on USD strength. Trade is to buy a March dip below 37 for a rise to 42. Short Turkey average at 89,200. Short Brazil at 70,000+.Long Japan – Fresh long from 18,950 with 18,900 pivot support. Long banks - must break above 200. USD/JPY above 114.60 targets 116/118.50.Asia shorts – SET 50 short (-5%). 9,589 Taiwan short covered at flat. STI 3,135 short. Look to add to Korea short at 275. Probing to short Nifty at 9,050.Asia longs – Long Nifty from 7,752 (will add on pullback). Long A share futures from 10,050 (10,200 support). H shares from 9,200. Long Ping An, BABA, CCB and ICBC. Australian banks from 6,658. Long KEPCO at 42.2k.Cycles – Sequence calls for correction into March 27th for expected cycle low with Europe performing.FOMC game plan – Yield spike and fade with odds that we price in a 2nd rate hike. USD rise showing fatigue vs Euro but EM FX/equities will succumb to pressure. Alert to a sell the fact fade.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.</li><li>This tends to be positive for banks.</li><li>It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.</li><li>A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.</li><li>But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. </li><li>It pays to differentiate, even in a boom</li></ul>

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again.This tends to be positive for banks.It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making and selling products for construction.It also supports mortgage lending and collateral values behind loans.A benign credit cycle, high provisions and reasonable margins is reason enough to be positive on Thai banks. Additionally is the current construction boom.But the warning and focus of this note is that not all banks are created equal. And it may be surprising, that some of Thailand&rsquo;s newest banks are showing trends completely at odds with mainstream banks. It pays to differentiate, even in a boom

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

Thailand

The Bangkok SET Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of April 30, 1975. 

Thailand SET Index (SET INDEX)

Equity Lull with USD Tail Wind

US equities are in a fade cycle given the S&P crack of 2,365 micro support. Short protection focused in NDX and IWM. Trimmed transport long. US...

Thomas Schroeder

Thailand: Despite Boom, Small Banks are Dull. Big Banks are Irresistible.

There is a boom in Bangkok, yet again. This tends to be positive for banks. It creates loan demand, both by developers and also companies making...

Daniel Tabbush