Stock Picking & Investing, BluSuit

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Emotions run high in bear markets. Often times, it’s very difficult to post analysis because it doesn’t always follow consensus.</li><li>But, the purpose of this newsletter is to be 100% transparent in my thinking which may not always be 100% popular.</li><li>In this case, we are going to take a look at a historically accurate bottom indicator and run specific price targets on the S&amp;P on a valuation perspective.</li></ul>

Emotions run high in bear markets. Often times, it’s very difficult to post analysis because it doesn’t always follow consensus.But, the purpose of this newsletter is to be 100% transparent in my thinking which may not always be 100% popular.In this case, we are going to take a look at a historically accurate bottom indicator and run specific price targets on the S&amp;P on a valuation perspective.

<ul><li>Listening to sentiment alone would lead investors to believe we are 50% down on the S&amp;P 500 and we have another 50% to go.</li><li>But, this simply is not true. When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom since 2000.</li><li>Recollecting Howard Marks book, “Mastering the Market Cycle”, there was a particular part that was of importance.</li></ul>

Listening to sentiment alone would lead investors to believe we are 50% down on the S&amp;P 500 and we have another 50% to go.But, this simply is not true. When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom since 2000.Recollecting Howard Marks book, “Mastering the Market Cycle”, there was a particular part that was of importance.

<ul><li>This is certainly a macro development that will influence the direction of the markets.</li><li>Essentially, what this means is that the markets are showing “signs of breaking” from the Federal Reserves aggressive tightening cycle.</li><li>Today, we are going to be more focused on market technicals but I wanted to touch briefly on this and will go into more depth this weekend.</li></ul>

This is certainly a macro development that will influence the direction of the markets.Essentially, what this means is that the markets are showing “signs of breaking” from the Federal Reserves aggressive tightening cycle.Today, we are going to be more focused on market technicals but I wanted to touch briefly on this and will go into more depth this weekend.

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst, Pennock Idea Hub

Cam Hui

Cross-Asset Strategist & Quantitative Analyst

Pennock Idea Hub

We are creators of independent equity research. The Pennock Idea Hub team are veterans of the investment industry. Much of our team has spent their careers at Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, RBC Capital Markets and Wood Gundy. We have taken every aspect of research back to the studs and returned to first principles. The Pennock Idea Hub marries the interests of the sell and buy side. 

We offer the best research for institutional investors by:

-Only publishing research from veteran analysts
-Eliminate the inherent conflicts of the traditional sell and buy side relationship
-Ensure our team is always accessible; collaboration with clients nurtures our collective success

Cross-Asset & Quantitative Research

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The U.S. stock market appears to be highly resilient in the face of bad news.</li>
<li>We outline three catalysts that have the potential to change the macro narrative from bearish to bullish and spark a “rip your face off” rally.</li>
<li>While none of these factors are specifically actionable, investors should be aware of possible asymmetry of risks and behave accordingly.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. stock market appears to be highly resilient in the face of bad news.
We outline three catalysts that have the potential to change the macro narrative from bearish to bullish and spark a “rip your face off” rally.
While none of these factors are specifically actionable, investors should be aware of possible asymmetry of risks and behave accordingly.


Three Catalysts That Could Spark A "Rip Your Face Off" Rally

<ul>
<li>The China stimulus news may be a catalyst for a relief rally of unknown magnitude.</li>
<li>While a V-shaped recovery is always a possibility, the odds favour a re-test of the old lows in the coming weeks.</li>
<li>The bears aren’t done yet, and the FOMC fear and rally cycle may not be done either.</li>
</ul>


The China stimulus news may be a catalyst for a relief rally of unknown magnitude.
While a V-shaped recovery is always a possibility, the odds favour a re-test of the old lows in the coming weeks.
The bears aren’t done yet, and the FOMC fear and rally cycle may not be done either.


China Blinked, But Can It Save the World Again?

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

S&P Hasn't Priced a Recession In

Emotions run high in bear markets. Often times, it’s very difficult to post analysis because it doesn’t always follow consensus.

BluSuit

We are Not Crashing, It's Just Volatile

When benchmarking the markets recent price action by sector, this bear market, on a technical basis, has the hall marks of every market bottom...

BluSuit

Key Market Technicals

Essentially, what this means is that the markets are showing “signs of breaking” from the Federal Reserves aggressive tightening cycle.

BluSuit

Three Catalysts That Could Spark A "Rip Your Face Off" Rally

We outline three catalysts that have the potential to change the macro narrative from bearish to bullish and spark a “rip your face off” rally.

Cam Hui

China Blinked, But Can It Save the World Again?

The China stimulus news may be a catalyst for a relief rally of unknown magnitude. The bears aren’t done yet, and the FOMC fear-and-rally cycle may...

Cam Hui

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