Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The last time the 2-year US Treasury yield was at the current level, the S&amp;P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spdr-s-p-500-etf-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:763:1" rel="noopener">SPDR S&amp;P 500 (SPY US))</a>  was trading at just below 3,800.</li>
<li>But even then, the P/E ratio of US equities was too high relative to short-term interest rates.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 Index P/E ratio would have to fall to 17.4 from the current 19.1 to realign with bond yields, proving nearly 10% downside. Stay short.</li>
</ul>


The last time the 2-year US Treasury yield was at the current level, the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPDR S&amp;P 500 (SPY US))  was trading at just below 3,800.
But even then, the P/E ratio of US equities was too high relative to short-term interest rates.
The S&amp;P 500 Index P/E ratio would have to fall to 17.4 from the current 19.1 to realign with bond yields, proving nearly 10% downside. Stay short.


Yields Up? Add Another 10% Downside for Stocks!

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>January CPI is due on Tuesday 14th and the market is expecting the biggest rise since October</li>
<li>The SPX has rallied over 7% since December but the Yield Curve has been moving higher and the equity rhetoric is turning negative</li>
<li>We look at a short-term trading opportunity in the options market to play the print</li>
</ul>


January CPI is due on Tuesday 14th and the market is expecting the biggest rise since October
The SPX has rallied over 7% since December but the Yield Curve has been moving higher and the equity rhetoric is turning negative
We look at a short-term trading opportunity in the options market to play the print


EQD | SPX Index : CPI Data Is Set to Raise Inflation Fears Again.Use Daily Options to Play the Event

Founder, TPW Advisory

TPW Advisory

Founder

Independent Investment Advisory Boutique

TPW Advisory is an independent investment advisory boutique located in NYC offering asset allocation & portfolio strategy advice, white label research and global, multi asset ETF based model portfolio delivery services.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they?</li><li>So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in history, especially among non US DM or EAFE (All Star Charts notes EAFE doubled SPY performance since October).</li><li>The US has enjoyed the January trifecta as we wrote about last week which has a perfect track record of higher stocks a year out.</li></ul>

Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they?So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in history, especially among non US DM or EAFE (All Star Charts notes EAFE doubled SPY performance since October).The US has enjoyed the January trifecta as we wrote about last week which has a perfect track record of higher stocks a year out.

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>S&amp;P (the company) may be a lot more exposed than S&amp;P (the index) if rates stay higher for longer and bets against the Fed unwind in 2H23.</li>
<li>While we like the rating agency and financial data provider's business portfolio, valuation is looking a bit stretched based on fundamental, relative and technical valuation metrics.</li>
<li>We believe it is unlikely that the stock will push through the USD375/share resistance level in the near term, and would look for entry opportunities closer to USD325/share.</li>
</ul>


S&amp;P (the company) may be a lot more exposed than S&amp;P (the index) if rates stay higher for longer and bets against the Fed unwind in 2H23.
While we like the rating agency and financial data provider's business portfolio, valuation is looking a bit stretched based on fundamental, relative and technical valuation metrics.
We believe it is unlikely that the stock will push through the USD375/share resistance level in the near term, and would look for entry opportunities closer to USD325/share.


S&P (SPGI US) VS S&P (SPX Index): A Leveraged Play on Rate Expectations

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>2023- Coming in With An Open Mind After an ugly 2022, it’s important to “clear the decks” and keep an open mind to what may or may not be working for 2023.</li><li>Coming into this year, there is tremendous clamoring over recession fears given weakness in forward looking leading economic indicators, CEO/CFO surveys, and business media talking heads.</li><li>As an investor, remaining open to different ideas, scenarios, and sectors is important as to not get tethered to siloed thinking.</li></ul>

2023- Coming in With An Open Mind After an ugly 2022, it’s important to “clear the decks” and keep an open mind to what may or may not be working for 2023.Coming into this year, there is tremendous clamoring over recession fears given weakness in forward looking leading economic indicators, CEO/CFO surveys, and business media talking heads.As an investor, remaining open to different ideas, scenarios, and sectors is important as to not get tethered to siloed thinking.

United States

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index. The Trust consists of a portfolio representing all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 Index. It holds predominantly large-cap U.S. stocks. This ETF is structured as a Unit Investment Trust and pays dividends on a quarterly basis. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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SPDR S&P 500 (SPY US)

Yields Up? Add Another 10% Downside for Stocks!

Bond yields are skyrocketing and will end the latest bear market rally in equities. The relationship between short-term yields and S&P 500 Index...

Jeroen Blokland

EQD | SPX Index : CPI Data Is Set to Raise Inflation Fears Again.Use Daily Options to Play the Event

US CPI data is out on Tues 14th. We look at the market expectations and the current positioning in Equities. We consider the potential for a move...

Simon Harris

TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

Trees don’t grow straight to the sky do they? So why would one expect stocks to just keep soaring after one of the more aggressive 3 month moves in...

TPW Advisory

S&P (SPGI US) VS S&P (SPX Index): A Leveraged Play on Rate Expectations

S&P the company has outperformed its namesake index on hopes that ratings fees will recover this year. But the stock's annuity-like features may...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Weekly Stock Bullfinder - Week of 1/16

2023- Coming in With An Open Mind After an ugly 2022, it’s important to “clear the decks” and keep an open mind to what may or may not be working...

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

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