Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Soybean futures maintained above USc 1,300/bushel indicating continued strong support at the level.</li>
<li>Large export sales announcements continued over the last week, through November, net Soybean sales from the US were higher than their 5Y average. December pace remains strong too.</li>
<li>CONAB cut production forecast for Soybean in Brazil due to unfavorable weather over November. Weather has improved recently with rains expected in key agricultural region.</li>
</ul>


Soybean futures maintained above USc 1,300/bushel indicating continued strong support at the level.
Large export sales announcements continued over the last week, through November, net Soybean sales from the US were higher than their 5Y average. December pace remains strong too.
CONAB cut production forecast for Soybean in Brazil due to unfavorable weather over November. Weather has improved recently with rains expected in key agricultural region.


[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

<ul>
<li>Research shows that El Niño results in milder weather leading to higher precipitation and consequently ~3.5% higher yield leading to depressed bean prices.</li>
<li>Bean prices have outperformed seasonal trends in November and December. It is surprising given surplus inventory outlook and El Niño effect on production.</li>
<li>Notifications of large export sales have driven much of the bullishness in prices over the past week. Prices are up 1.7% from last Friday’s settlement prices.</li>
</ul>


Research shows that El Niño results in milder weather leading to higher precipitation and consequently ~3.5% higher yield leading to depressed bean prices.
Bean prices have outperformed seasonal trends in November and December. It is surprising given surplus inventory outlook and El Niño effect on production.
Notifications of large export sales have driven much of the bullishness in prices over the past week. Prices are up 1.7% from last Friday’s settlement prices.


[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

<ul>
<li>Brazil’s weather is set to improve with forecasts suggesting milder weather and rainfall; This alleviates concerns over Brazilian Soy crop.</li>
<li>Seasonal trends during El Niño years differ: Soybean provides negative returns in December-February. Worsening El Niño likely to lead to more favorable conditions for Brazilian Soy crop.</li>
<li>Technicals point to price reversal and bearish outlook. Options OI and futures positioning per COT report reaffirms bearish outlook. </li>
</ul>


Brazil’s weather is set to improve with forecasts suggesting milder weather and rainfall; This alleviates concerns over Brazilian Soy crop.
Seasonal trends during El Niño years differ: Soybean provides negative returns in December-February. Worsening El Niño likely to lead to more favorable conditions for Brazilian Soy crop.
Technicals point to price reversal and bearish outlook. Options OI and futures positioning per COT report reaffirms bearish outlook. 


Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

<ul>
<li>Soybean ranks as the most traded crop globally. It comprises 10% of the total value of global agriculture trade.</li>
<li>The Americas comprise &gt;80% of total global production. China mops up ~60% of global imports and is primarily used to feed massive livestock.</li>
<li>Soybean is more prone to shocks from geopolitical disruptions. Weather also impacts Beans. El Niño favours Soybean yields.</li>
</ul>


Soybean ranks as the most traded crop globally. It comprises 10% of the total value of global agriculture trade.
The Americas comprise &gt;80% of total global production. China mops up ~60% of global imports and is primarily used to feed massive livestock.
Soybean is more prone to shocks from geopolitical disruptions. Weather also impacts Beans. El Niño favours Soybean yields.


El Niño Enhances Soybean Yields Creating Deflationary Impact on Its Prices

Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The USDA surprised the market with a 5% lower-than-expected planted soybean area in 2023, with soybeans rallying 7%.  </li>
<li>The U.S. Midwest drought remains in focus. Dry areas are by far the greatest since 2002 and soybean crop ratings are at historic lows for this time of year. </li>
<li>With the budding El Niño, supply risk to edible oils in 2024 continues to rise. Reiterate the positive call on Plantations and the bullish CPO price forecast. </li>
</ul>


The USDA surprised the market with a 5% lower-than-expected planted soybean area in 2023, with soybeans rallying 7%.  
The U.S. Midwest drought remains in focus. Dry areas are by far the greatest since 2002 and soybean crop ratings are at historic lows for this time of year. 
With the budding El Niño, supply risk to edible oils in 2024 continues to rise. Reiterate the positive call on Plantations and the bullish CPO price forecast. 


Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Soybean Active Contract (S A COMDTY)

[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

El Niño is known to bowl curved balls. Weather volatility is feeding in soybean price gyrations. Despite record harvests, continued Chinese bean...

Mint Finance

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...

Mint Finance

El Niño Enhances Soybean Yields Creating Deflationary Impact on Its Prices

Soybean is a giant in global agri trade. Americas comprise >80% of global production & China is the largest importer. Geopolitics, weather in El...

Mint Finance

Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?

The USDA surprised with a 5% lower planted soybean area in 2023, while risk to yields from drought remains elevated. Supply risk to edible oils is...

Niklas Olausson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Counting Beans #2] Soybean Prices Maintain Support at USc 1,300

​Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...

Mint Finance

[Counting Beans #1] Robust Soybean Exports Driving Prices Higher Despite Record Harvest

El Niño is known to bowl curved balls. Weather volatility is feeding in soybean price gyrations. Despite record harvests, continued Chinese bean...

Mint Finance

Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean Prices

​Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...

Mint Finance

El Niño Enhances Soybean Yields Creating Deflationary Impact on Its Prices

Soybean is a giant in global agri trade. Americas comprise >80% of global production & China is the largest importer. Geopolitics, weather in El...

Mint Finance

Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?

The USDA surprised with a 5% lower planted soybean area in 2023, while risk to yields from drought remains elevated. Supply risk to edible oils is...

Niklas Olausson

Soybean futures remain strong with high export sales. CONAB cuts Brazil Soy production forecast due to unfavorable weather, weather has now...

Improved weather in Brazil is expected to benefit the soy crop, alleviating concerns, while worsening El Niño conditions counterintuitively result...