Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The USDA surprised the market with a 5% lower-than-expected planted soybean area in 2023, with soybeans rallying 7%.  </li>
<li>The U.S. Midwest drought remains in focus. Dry areas are by far the greatest since 2002 and soybean crop ratings are at historic lows for this time of year. </li>
<li>With the budding El Niño, supply risk to edible oils in 2024 continues to rise. Reiterate the positive call on Plantations and the bullish CPO price forecast. </li>
</ul>


The USDA surprised the market with a 5% lower-than-expected planted soybean area in 2023, with soybeans rallying 7%.  
The U.S. Midwest drought remains in focus. Dry areas are by far the greatest since 2002 and soybean crop ratings are at historic lows for this time of year. 
With the budding El Niño, supply risk to edible oils in 2024 continues to rise. Reiterate the positive call on Plantations and the bullish CPO price forecast. 


Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.</li><li>The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.</li><li>Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.</li></ul>

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second quarter in a row now, as the latest data by the World Gold Council for Q3 showed.The total gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) gained meanwhile 5% y/y to 1,313 tonnes.Global gold ETF inflows (95t) were a major driver of growth as Q3 was the first positive quarter for ETF flows since Q1’22.

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

<ul><li>CTA Update Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.</li><li>Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium</li><li>Go with momentum' trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week.</li></ul>

CTA Update Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and PalladiumGo with momentum' trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week.

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Geopolitical risks are resurfacing in grain and oilseed markets</li><li>Weather-related risks are impacting agricultural markets, particularly in the US and South America</li><li>US grain export demand is strong, but dry conditions may lower yield potential and delay planting in South America, causing prices to rise</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Geopolitical risks are resurfacing in grain and oilseed marketsWeather-related risks are impacting agricultural markets, particularly in the US and South AmericaUS grain export demand is strong, but dry conditions may lower yield potential and delay planting in South America, causing prices to riseThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: Agricultural Markets Update – set for a seasonal recovery ahead

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Last El Niño was one of the strongest on record, and typically are followed by La Niña, but this transition has yet to occur. </li>
<li>Latest ONI Reading and trend shows possibility of La Niña developing in August-October, could coincide with winter. </li>
<li>Historically, adverse weather changes and high hurricane incidence are likely to spoil bearish bets against corn and lead to sustained price recovery.</li>
</ul>


Last El Niño was one of the strongest on record, and typically are followed by La Niña, but this transition has yet to occur. 
Latest ONI Reading and trend shows possibility of La Niña developing in August-October, could coincide with winter. 
Historically, adverse weather changes and high hurricane incidence are likely to spoil bearish bets against corn and lead to sustained price recovery.


Will Delayed La Niña Onset Fuel Weather Risks Firing up Corn Prices?

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Soybean Active Contract (S A COMDTY)

Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?

The USDA surprised with a 5% lower planted soybean area in 2023, while risk to yields from drought remains elevated. Supply risk to edible oils is...

Niklas Olausson

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness

Gold Demand Data Indicates More Economic Weakness Gold demand for technology purposes is still up but the pace continues to decline for the second...

The Commodity Report

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

Contrarian' trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium

The Commodity Report

Global Commodities: Agricultural Markets Update – set for a seasonal recovery ahead

Geopolitical and weather-related risks are impacting agricultural markets, with dry conditions in Brazil affecting sugarcane harvest and delaying...

At Any Rate

Will Delayed La Niña Onset Fuel Weather Risks Firing up Corn Prices?

Delayed La Niña threatens corn harvest. Harvest disruptions & rising hurricanes can sharply turn bearish corn sentiments into a rally. Neutral ENSO...

Mint Finance

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