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Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?

Independent Analyst

Niklas Olausson

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Indonesia Food products / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Crude Palm Oil Active Contract (KOA COMDTY)

<ul>
<li>The USDA surprised the market with a 5% lower-than-expected planted soybean area in 2023, with soybeans rallying 7%.  </li>
<li>The U.S. Midwest drought remains in focus. Dry areas are by far the greatest since 2002 and soybean crop ratings are at historic lows for this time of year. </li>
<li>With the budding El Niño, supply risk to edible oils in 2024 continues to rise. Reiterate the positive call on Plantations and the bullish CPO price forecast. </li>
</ul>


The USDA surprised the market with a 5% lower-than-expected planted soybean area in 2023, with soybeans rallying 7%.  
The U.S. Midwest drought remains in focus. Dry areas are by far the greatest since 2002 and soybean crop ratings are at historic lows for this time of year. 
With the budding El Niño, supply risk to edible oils in 2024 continues to rise. Reiterate the positive call on Plantations and the bullish CPO price forecast. 


Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?