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bullish
Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?
Niklas has highlighted this Insight as a Top Pick
769 Views22 Jun 2023 10:08
SUMMARY
- The NOAA has confirmed that the world is at the start of an El Niño, which means less rainfall in Southeast Asia and pressure on oil palm yields.
- Early signs point to a severe event, which would cause a significant edible oil deficit in 2024. Ongoing drought in the U.S. is a budding wild card, affecting soybeans.
- The report projects a 40% YoY higher average crude palm oil price in 2024. Given depressed consensus expectations and undemanding valuation, the risk-reward is bullish on a 6-12 month horizon.
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Discussions
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Niklas Olausson
Independent Analyst
- Southeast Asia Plantations: Where Things Stand with the Weather, Still Bullish01 Aug 2023
- Southeast Asia Plantations: Malaysia Palm Oil Inventories Surprised to the Downside12 Jul 2023
- Southeast Asia Plantations: U.S. Midwest Drought, the El Niño Bull Run Appetizer?04 Jul 2023
- Southeast Asia Plantations: El Niño’s Back, with a Vengeance?22 Jun 2023
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