Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Pan Shiyi and Pan Zhangxin - Chairman and CEO respectively of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">SOHO China (410 HK)</a> - have tendered their resignations, with immediate effect. </li>
<li>Both are resigning "to focus on supporting the arts and philanthropic pursuits".</li>
<li>That sounds like a "donation" is on the cards. And the Pans selling their stake in SOHO China would nicely fund that donation.</li>
</ul>


Pan Shiyi and Pan Zhangxin - Chairman and CEO respectively of SOHO China (410 HK) - have tendered their resignations, with immediate effect. 
Both are resigning "to focus on supporting the arts and philanthropic pursuits".
That sounds like a "donation" is on the cards. And the Pans selling their stake in SOHO China would nicely fund that donation.


SOHO China (410 HK): Blackstone Deal Potentially Back On As Pan Shiyi Goes "Altruistic"

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 32 potential and close adds and 44 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
We expect 29 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 31 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates (127 HK)</a>'s Scheme was always going to be a tricky affair, given Hong Kong's 2021 M&amp;A bloodbath - e.g.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-throat-holdings-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22664:1" rel="noopener">Golden Throat (6896 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>95.95% of Disinterested Shareholders voted for the Scheme. However, the Scheme failed the "headcount test", as it was not approved by a majority in number of Scheme Shareholders. </li>
<li>Hong Kong abolished the headcount test in March 2014. Cayman and Bermuda-incorporated companies should follow suit. </li>
</ul>



Chinese Estates (127 HK)'s Scheme was always going to be a tricky affair, given Hong Kong's 2021 M&amp;A bloodbath - e.g.  Soho China (410 HK) &amp; Golden Throat (6896 HK).
95.95% of Disinterested Shareholders voted for the Scheme. However, the Scheme failed the "headcount test", as it was not approved by a majority in number of Scheme Shareholders. 
Hong Kong abolished the headcount test in March 2014. Cayman and Bermuda-incorporated companies should follow suit. 


Chinese Estates (127 HK): Understanding The Scheme Voting

China Renaissance Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-renaissance-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27365:1" rel="noopener">China Renaissance (1911 HK)</a> was once touted as a "leading investment bank and asset manager dedicated to the new economy". At the time of its 1Q21 post-IPO high, it was.</li>
<li>Late last Thursday, the 16 February, CR said it was <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0216/2023021600837.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unable to contact</a> (hours, days, weeks?) Bao Fan, its chairman, CEO, and controlling shareholder. Shares subsequently fell 28%.</li>
<li>Bao is the face of CR and instrumental in client dealing and complex large-scale deal making. Clarification is recommended before investors dip their toe back in the water.</li>
</ul>



China Renaissance (1911 HK) was once touted as a "leading investment bank and asset manager dedicated to the new economy". At the time of its 1Q21 post-IPO high, it was.
Late last Thursday, the 16 February, CR said it was unable to contact (hours, days, weeks?) Bao Fan, its chairman, CEO, and controlling shareholder. Shares subsequently fell 28%.
Bao is the face of CR and instrumental in client dealing and complex large-scale deal making. Clarification is recommended before investors dip their toe back in the water.


China Renaissance (1911 HK): Loss of Face

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a>'s Pan Shiyi is resigning to focus on "philanthropic pursuits". That sounds like "donations", which can be sourced from the Pans selling their stake in SOHO.</li>
<li>In the Nikkei 225 Annual Review, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec (6594 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a> are IN. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unitika-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7669:1" rel="noopener">Unitika (3103 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruha-nichiro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20640:1" rel="noopener">Maruha (1333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oki-electric-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2181:1" rel="noopener">Oki Electric (6703 JP)</a> are OUT.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/volkswagen-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21738:1" rel="noopener">Volkswagen (VOW GR)</a> confirms its intention to float a portion of its Porsche sports-car brand within weeks, in what is expected to be one of Germany’s largest-ever public debuts.</li>
</ul>



Soho China (410 HK)'s Pan Shiyi is resigning to focus on "philanthropic pursuits". That sounds like "donations", which can be sourced from the Pans selling their stake in SOHO.
In the Nikkei 225 Annual Review, Nidec (6594 JP), SMC (6273 JP), Hoya (7741 JP) are IN. Unitika (3103 JP), Maruha (1333 JP), and Oki Electric (6703 JP) are OUT.

Volkswagen (VOW GR) confirms its intention to float a portion of its Porsche sports-car brand within weeks, in what is expected to be one of Germany’s largest-ever public debuts.


Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro

China

Soho China Ltd. is a property developer. The Company develops properties in central Beijing and Shanghai. Soho China collaborates with internationally recognized architects, translating their designs into real estate which possesses strong appeal to property investors and the local businesses and customer bases they serve.

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Soho China (410 HK)

SOHO China (410 HK): Blackstone Deal Potentially Back On As Pan Shiyi Goes "Altruistic"

Pan Shiyi and Pan Zhangxin have tendered their resignations to focus on supporting the arts and philanthropic pursuits. "Donations" may be funded...

David Blennerhassett

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in March 2025

There could be 78 changes for the HSCI in March. That could result in 57 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have implications...

Brian Freitas

Chinese Estates (127 HK): Understanding The Scheme Voting

Interesting development. 230.977mn shares (or 12.11% of shares out) in Chinese Estates (127 HK) have moved into CCASS (and into BNP). That's almost...

David Blennerhassett

China Renaissance (1911 HK): Loss of Face

When your key man, who is instrumental to the company's fortunes - and its major shareholder - disappears without any explanation, it is a brave...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: SOHO China, Nikkei 225 Review, SK Chemicals, SingTel, Porsche, Tyro

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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