IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a> announced the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> share alternative offer, subject to proration due to a cap of 8% of outstanding shares. </li>
<li>The share alternative offer was necessary to facilitate the vote as the HK$24.60 offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. </li>
<li>The co-founders, HenLink and LVC, will likely tender some or all their shares for scrip. At the last close and for the December-end payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/17.9%.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) announced the Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) share alternative offer, subject to proration due to a cap of 8% of outstanding shares. 
The share alternative offer was necessary to facilitate the vote as the HK$24.60 offer is half the HK$49.60 IPO price. 
The co-founders, HenLink and LVC, will likely tender some or all their shares for scrip. At the last close and for the December-end payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.4%/17.9%.


Henlius (2696 HK): Share Alternative Facilitates the Vote

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to IPO policy adjustment on SSE STAR Market, investment/financing for innovative drugs should continue to deteriorate.But the positive side is the innovative drug industry is emerging from the bottom.</li>
<li>For the three hot fields in pharmaceutical industry (BsAb, ADC, CGT), we analyze their position and pecking order, which should be ADC &gt; BsAb &gt; CGT at the current stage.</li>
<li>To better understand the investment logic of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Pharmaceutical</a>, it is necessary to fully understand the ecosystem/operational model of Fosun Group. Fosun Pharma's role is just a "chess piece".</li>
</ul>


Due to IPO policy adjustment on SSE STAR Market, investment/financing for innovative drugs should continue to deteriorate.But the positive side is the innovative drug industry is emerging from the bottom.
For the three hot fields in pharmaceutical industry (BsAb, ADC, CGT), we analyze their position and pecking order, which should be ADC &gt; BsAb &gt; CGT at the current stage.
To better understand the investment logic of Fosun Pharmaceutical, it is necessary to fully understand the ecosystem/operational model of Fosun Group. Fosun Pharma's role is just a "chess piece".


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13) - Deteriorating Financing Environment, ADC>BsAb>CGT, Fosun Pharma

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

<ul>
<li>The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.</li>
<li>Trump's reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions - One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.</li>
<li>From a US national security perspective, China's APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of "decoupling" further increases.</li>
</ul>


The assassination of Trump in July has greatly increased the probability of his election as president this year. However, a Trump presidency is not necessarily good for healthcare industry.
Trump's reform in the field of healthcare has two major propositions - One is to achieve the independence of US pharmaceutical supply chain. The other is to reduce drug prices.
From a US national security perspective, China's APIs/CXO would be the segments with the highest sanction risk. China Biotech may also face some headwinds. The risk of "decoupling" further increases.


What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yichang-hec-changjiang-pharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21040:1" rel="noopener">Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capitol-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14504:1" rel="noopener">Capitol Health (CAJ AU)</a>. 
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/second-chance-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20342:1" rel="noopener">Second Chance Properties (SCE SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/c-i-takiron-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18675:1" rel="noopener">C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl Corp (4921 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-logistics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3935:1" rel="noopener">Alps Logistics (9055 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma (1558 HK), JTower (4485 JP), China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Capitol Health (CAJ AU). 

Lowest spreads: Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), Second Chance Properties (SCE SP), C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP), Fancl Corp (4921 JP), Alps Logistics (9055 JP). 


Merger Arb Mondays (19 Aug) - China TCM, Henlius, Canvest, CPMC, JTower, Fuji Soft PropertyGuru

China

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. is a pharmaceutical company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures genetic medicines, Chinese traditional medicines, diagnostic products, and medical instruments, provides technology, marketing, and advertising services, as well as invests in import and export trading.

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (600196 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (600196 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13) - Deteriorating Financing Environment, ADC>BsAb>CGT, Fosun Pharma

IPO policy change will worsen financing environment, putting PEVC in difficult position.For pharmaceutical hot field, the pecking order is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

Assassination of Trump boosts his election chances, but his healthcare reform may not benefit industry.US national security concerns over China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Aug) - China TCM, Henlius, Canvest, CPMC, JTower, Fuji Soft PropertyGuru

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (114.4%), JTower (69.0%), China TCM (11.9%), Canvest (10.4%), Capitol (8.5%), Malaysia Airports...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Henlius (2696 HK): Share Alternative Facilitates the Vote

The share alternative offer was necessary to secure the support of some substantial shareholders and facilitate the vote. At the last close, the...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.13) - Deteriorating Financing Environment, ADC>BsAb>CGT, Fosun Pharma

IPO policy change will worsen financing environment, putting PEVC in difficult position.For pharmaceutical hot field, the pecking order is...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

What Does a Trump Presidency Mean for China Healthcare?

​Assassination of Trump boosts his election chances, but his healthcare reform may not benefit industry.US national security concerns over China's...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Merger Arb Mondays (19 Aug) - China TCM, Henlius, Canvest, CPMC, JTower, Fuji Soft PropertyGuru

This week, the highest gross spreads are HEC Pharma (114.4%), JTower (69.0%), China TCM (11.9%), Canvest (10.4%), Capitol (8.5%), Malaysia Airports...

Arun George

Assassination of Trump boosts his election chances, but his healthcare reform may not benefit industry.US national security concerns over China's...