Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Amid all-time highs, the S&amp;P 500 faces recession risks with economic indicators like unemployment and housing starts signaling downturns, impacting broader market stability.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500's growth, heavily reliant on mega-cap tech stocks, contrasts sharply with broader indices, driven by AI advancements and global revenue streams, suggesting market top-heaviness.</li>
<li>Given recession precursors and market frothiness, a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&amp;P 500 and Short Russell 2000) is proposed to balance potential gains with reduced risks.</li>
</ul>


Amid all-time highs, the S&amp;P 500 faces recession risks with economic indicators like unemployment and housing starts signaling downturns, impacting broader market stability.
The S&amp;P 500's growth, heavily reliant on mega-cap tech stocks, contrasts sharply with broader indices, driven by AI advancements and global revenue streams, suggesting market top-heaviness.
Given recession precursors and market frothiness, a spread trade using CME’s Micro E-Mini futures (Long S&amp;P 500 and Short Russell 2000) is proposed to balance potential gains with reduced risks.


Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P Spreads

<ul>
<li>Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).</li>
<li>The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.</li>
<li>If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership</li>
</ul>


Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they're extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership


Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.2%).</li><li>Energy Technology (14.5% of the index) was down by 3.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (60.3% of the index) was up by 0.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.3%, andAdvanced Transportation Solutions (19.6% of index) was down 2.6%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: NRM, VIHD, OESX, FNI, DCFC, PNPN, SMR, <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">LICY, ASYS, PSIX</span></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.8% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.2%).Energy Technology (14.5% of the index) was down by 3.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (60.3% of the index) was up by 0.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.3%, andAdvanced Transportation Solutions (19.6% of index) was down 2.6%.Top 10 Performers: NRM, VIHD, OESX, FNI, DCFC, PNPN, SMR, LICY, ASYS, PSIX

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Spruce Power Holding Corporation (SPRU)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>The main Japanese indices have been moving sideways this year</li>
<li>Continued weakness in the JPY has diminished returns in USD terms</li>
<li>Technically the market has similar weak underlying breadth as the US market</li>
</ul>


The main Japanese indices have been moving sideways this year
Continued weakness in the JPY has diminished returns in USD terms
Technically the market has similar weak underlying breadth as the US market


Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P Spreads

S&P 500 faces recession risks due to economic indicators, tech stock reliance, and market frothiness, prompting a spread trade strategy for...

Mint Finance

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Spruce Power Holding Corporation (SPRU)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.8% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.2%).

Water Tower Research

Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.

Rikki Malik

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

Navigating Frothy US Equities with S&P Spreads

​S&P 500 faces recession risks due to economic indicators, tech stock reliance, and market frothiness, prompting a spread trade strategy for...

Mint Finance

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Bullish Outlook Intact; Expecting Short-term Support at $SPX 5370-5380 and $QQQ $468-469 (20-day MAs...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Spruce Power Holding Corporation (SPRU)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.8% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 0.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.2%).

Water Tower Research

Revisiting the Japanese Market – Time to Increase Allocations?

​Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.

Rikki Malik

S&P 500 faces recession risks due to economic indicators, tech stock reliance, and market frothiness, prompting a spread trade strategy for...

Japanese indices have been stagnant due to a weak JPY and share a technically weak underlying breadth as the US market.